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18mans direct bubble with AQx from EP

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Jaunais
Joined: 24.01.2014

Hey guys, wanted to hear your thoughts on this particular spot which makes me wondering.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$3.16+$0.34
Stacks:
UTG Hero (12.05BB) 12bb
CO (37.24BB) 37bb
BTN (4.89BB) 5bb
SB (29.19BB) 29bb
BB (6.63BB) 7bbBlinds: 0.5BB/1BB Ante 0.08BB
Pre-Flop: (1.92BB, 5 players) Hero is UTG A♠: Q♣:

Hero 12BB
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Its from 18mans FT on direct bubble. CO & BTN are good regs so if I decide open-shove I give CO calling range (6.3%, 77+ AJs+ AQo+ ) and BTN as he's shortstack a bit wider (8.6%, 44+ AJs+ AJo+). Both SB and BB are fish so I must assume their calling ranges are wider than should be considering hard ICM spot. So I assume SB will call me off with (8.9%, 44+ ATs+ AJo+ ) and BB even wider as he has 1bb in the pot already and is shortstacked (11.3%, 22+ ATs+ ATo+ KJs+).
So with given ranges our open-shove range should be only TT+ AK+.


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4 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I think you made already a nice analyze yourself and especially in an 18 man SNG the bubble play is nasty. All players need to call tight and it’s indeed likely all players will call tighter then they should, but even then, is folding AQo tough. In this case I would make a tight fold with the flat paid outs in mind and 2 players that need to gamble sooner or later.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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JKV89
Joined: 05.03.2017

Tight fold indeed.


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Okkernootje
Joined: 02.09.2013

Boarderline and very dependent on reads. What do you mean by fish? Is this 72/8 stats or 17/2? Both fishy imo but very different in this specific situation.

But since ICM doesn't take in mind we will be hitting the blinds, we basically have the nuts 5handed and we have loads of FE... I'm not folding this hand. Would love to get it in against the shorties off course.

Shove imo.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

The big stacks are the biggest problem in this hand.
If they call to wide, we could end up in a ICM suicide situation.


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