KK on dangerous flop

The flop I would check for sure. We have some backdoor outs and multiway it’s to likely someone has at least an ace. On the turn, I would fold for sure with only 8 outs for a flush and 3 extra for a straight, but even with 11 outs we hit our draw in only 24% (11/46) of the time and we need almost 40% equity (3.470/8.764) to make a profitable call here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

This is a 50cent tournament.

We raise from UTG and we don't cbet a AQx flop? Why? Might as well open fold then, because anyone after us will bet in these tourneys, no?

The BB is just clicking anything because "i get the odds" especially our friends from the R&B-named countries. Unless hero hasn't bluffed a hand before with cbetting what villain(s) perceive as "bluff", a cbet with about 40% potsize is just as good and we get away cheap, if we get resistance and we haven't announced "when I have no ace in UTG, I check".

What do you think?

Originally posted by SDK1987
The flop I would check for sure. We have some backdoor outs and multiway it’s to likely someone has at least an ace. On the turn, I would fold for sure with only 8 outs for a flush and 3 extra for a straight, but even with 11 outs we hit our draw in only 24% (11/46) of the time and we need almost 40% equity (3.470/8.764) to make a profitable call here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Hej,

excuse me but what does the 8764 in your calcutlation mean? It doesn't make sense to me.
According to my calculation we only need 33 % to win. (2:1 odds)

Best regards
Dominik

Originally posted by Dominik12345

Originally posted by SDK1987
The flop I would check for sure. We have some backdoor outs and multiway it’s to likely someone has at least an ace. On the turn, I would fold for sure with only 8 outs for a flush and 3 extra for a straight, but even with 11 outs we hit our draw in only 24% (11/46) of the time and we need almost 40% equity (3.470/8.764) to make a profitable call here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Hej,

excuse me but what does the 8764 in your calcutlation mean? It doesn't make sense to me.
According to my calculation we only need 33 % to win. (2:1 odds)

Best regards
Dominik

You need always to count the total pot after call in this kind of situation. That’s 8.764, but this time you only need to call 2.853 to win a total pot of 8764 and that is 32,55%. That was my error here, but even then, you will not win this hand 1/3 of the time here.

Originally posted by SignOff1970
This is a 50cent tournament.

We raise from UTG and we don't cbet a AQx flop? Why? Might as well open fold then, because anyone after us will bet in these tourneys, no?

The BB is just clicking anything because "i get the odds" especially our friends from the R&B-named countries. Unless hero hasn't bluffed a hand before with cbetting what villain(s) perceive as "bluff", a cbet with about 40% potsize is just as good and we get away cheap, if we get resistance and we haven't announced "when I have no ace in UTG, I check".

What do you think?

Don’t forget we are playing out of position against most likely 2 fishy players that will never fold a draw or Ax hand. That’s why I don’t think it’s profitable to Cbet this hand.

I would cbet this hand, the fishy players may not have an Ace, you get plenty of people who just love calling to see flops and then giving up at this level.

However I would not Cbet nearly pot sized.
A bet of 40-50% pot size will fold out the non aces.

As played when you bet 1000 if called you only have one pot sized bet left on the turn, and are most likily behind.

It can seam frustrating when you have a great hand like KK and an Ace comes, you may have wanted to bet big to win the pot, but you have to learn that KK doesn't always win, and to always play good poker.