Ok so OOP bad AA. 4 way well concealed. Flop top set on driest of boards. Want opponents to catch up. TUrn is a7, one villain starts betting. Put him on 7x now mostly. Then I am licking my chops hoping for him to keep on betting on the river. River is another 7 which caught me completely off guard and made me a bit sick. I don't even know why I donked small with my probably counterfitted turn 98% equity and fold to a substantial river raise. How do you guys feel about this? Turn raise looked way too strong imo that is why I just wanted him to keep on betting and maybe keep other players in the hand too. Is it just a case where 98% of the time this strategy of calling with turn nuts works out and 2% it does not? Thanks for answering.
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 99 BB (VPIP: 55.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 63)
Hero (SB): 178 BB
BB: 159.5 BB (VPIP: 41.03, PFR: 35.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
UTG: 146 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 49)
MP: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 28.23, PFR: 17.01, 3Bet Preflop: 3.42, Hands: 300)
CO: 182.5 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ 2♣ A♠ 6♦
fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB
Flop: (8 BB, 4 players) A♦ 7♣ 3♠
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN checks
Turn: (8 BB, 4 players) 7♠
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB, fold, fold
River: (23 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 40 BB, fold
Spoiler
BTN wins 34 BB