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Flop well hidden top set on A73. Turn 7 villain bets. range trips+. River disgusting 7. Fold?

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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

Ok so OOP bad AA. 4 way well concealed. Flop top set on driest of boards. Want opponents to catch up. TUrn is a7, one villain starts betting. Put him on 7x now mostly. Then I am licking my chops hoping for him to keep on betting on the river. River is another 7 which caught me completely off guard and made me a bit sick. I don't even know why I donked small with my probably counterfitted turn 98% equity and fold to a substantial river raise. How do you guys feel about this? Turn raise looked way too strong imo that is why I just wanted him to keep on betting and maybe keep other players in the hand too. Is it just a case where 98% of the time this strategy of calling with turn nuts works out and 2% it does not? Thanks for answering.
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 99 BB (VPIP: 55.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 63)
Hero (SB): 178 BB
BB: 159.5 BB (VPIP: 41.03, PFR: 35.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
UTG: 146 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 49)
MP: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 28.23, PFR: 17.01, 3Bet Preflop: 3.42, Hands: 300)
CO: 182.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ 2♣ A♠ 6♦

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 4 players) A♦ 7♣ 3♠
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: (8 BB, 4 players) 7♠
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB, fold, fold

River: (23 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets 6 BB, BTN raises to 40 BB, fold

Spoiler

BTN wins 34 BB


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5 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

This is a tricky hand for sure, because you only losing against a 7x hand. Normal I would bet around half pot and call his bet, but not sure if he ever will raise with less than a 7, but I expect a fish can still do this.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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SuperChompa
Joined: 26.07.2016

I think there are at least 2 ways ot play that hand. You could have lead on the turn and bet again river.
Otherwise if you check call turn, I would go check call agian on the river.

I guess you wanted to pull out a big check raise on the river if it was not a 7, it is funny because it is something that happens to me too, I mean when I make a plan for postflop play and some unexpected stuff comes it is very dificult to change the plan.


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

Why not raise turn to build for a big river bet to maximize against a 7? It does look strong, but would he really fold a 7?

When you call turn on blank river, lets say he boats up, you check raise to around 50bb and he would probably just call. So you wouldnt even stack his boats. I think raise turn is neccessary. Ofcourse you are going to lose his bluffs/flushdraws but whatever.

As played, this river is awful. You have some value from random pocket pairs. I dont mind your bet. A hand like 554x or JJ+xx with 2 spades may call your small sizing. Checking is also fine but you should probably call if you check.

And ofcourse vs this raise you should fold. :f_thumbsup:


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rulaZ
Joined: 19.06.2008

I fully agree on what nsavov says. No need to play deceptive on this turn if you're being up against a 7 most of the time. Everything else won't bet river anyways.


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FlyingDutchm1n Topic starter
FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

Ok guys thank you for all the responses. Have seen people fold bare trips in these kinds of spots too but I guess what nsavov said makes a lot of sense too. Either way, if I would wait for him to boat up on river, I now realise that is also not optimal either because 1) the pot will be relatively small 2) low boats don't necesarily stack off since it would still (however, this is also the reason why some people drop their trips vs a raise on turn on A737) require a river 3bet still (see point 1) and they will more likely just call (player dependent of course) and 3) he will only have 10 outs or something to get a full house or quads on the river anyway which will happen the minority of the time (and quads is no good for me so only 9 good outs at best). On the turn he can still hope to fill up, this hope is no longer there on river if he misses of course. In this case if turn range is 7+ almost always, river must then be mostly quads and KK, QQ etc. don't raise in these spots I guess that is why I bet, because if I had checked, and he then pots, there will be more bluffs or misguided bets in there (meaning I would be more inclined to call),but because of assigned turn-range I thought by betting I would force him into his raising range which I think will be extremely narrow here. so so often a 7 that the call becomes -EV. Bye guys.


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