AQJ5ds - top pair vs loose aggro reg - defensive line

Even if the BTN is very aggressive it seems optimistic for him to bet into 3 players on the flop with less than our hand and I would make a fold. A cbet seems like a good option, but it’s difficult to get 3 folds and we get only action of better and in a 4 way pot it’s likely someone hits better than ours.

If I check the BTN his play I’m not sure what he’s doing at all, because he has pretty much the same hand as you and with his thin showdown value I would only bet the river for thin value.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Again, it's 4-way single-raised pot so we should be careful. If there is betting, pot will grow and ppl can have all kind of stuff like 99, 44.

I think cbetting is better play than check-calling. We have top pair + Q and some backdoor stuff. We can get folds, if not we can fold against raise or pot control IP on turn (unless BTN is the player calling our cbet). If we don't cbet, I think I would just fold against this big bet. For sure villain is aggro, but I don't think we're gonna make a lot money with calling OOP without iniative.

OTT it's interesting, that he bets only 60% of pot when he bombed the flop with 90% of pot bet. I would say this means he doesn't have sets/two pairs, but rather a draw with some equity. It's practically impossible to have a valuehand here, that wouldn't need protection. Still, I think folding should be considered here, we are not happy campers with many rivers at all, A/J/3 without diamond so that's 9 cards.

River my first instinct was, that you should just go ahead and bluff here. It's very unlikely, that your pair of jacks gonna be good at this point. Also, you've a queen and playing QT this way makes some sense. The problem is though, that board is not that dangerous looking, there is missed draws and QT is in villain's range too pretty strongly, at least when I think his bet-sizing on the turn. To fold-out 2-pairs you probably need to just jam it, and he can still call it not believing your line. It's costly play, and maybe it's ok just to give up here.

I agree with SDK1987 here, when you check river SPR less than 1 you're not gonna have the straight, when you didn't shove on the turn you won't have a set. He has basically the nuts with top-2, and as a bonus he has a busted flushdraw on his hand. I think this time villain should go for thin value / fold splits.

Really helpful thanks. One question:

You say: "He has basically the nuts with top-2, and as a bonus he has a busted flushdraw on his hand. I think this time villain should go for thin value / fold splits."

Do you mean that because he has a busted flush draw it blocks flushdraws I could have meaning that I'm more likely to have worse 2p or 1 hand? Or did you mean something else about why this helps him to vbet profitably?

Yeah, I think if you have a busted flushdraw in your hand then it's more unlikely your opponent also has one. And if he had only a busted draw and no showdown value, he would want to bluff with it here.

It's hard for you to have a calling hand though, so it's thin valuebet. Maybe if you had some blockers to straight you could think he is bluffing here. AATT, some KQQ, KQ9 types of hand maybe?