Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

ZOOM big semi-bluff OTT with FD

8 Posts
6 Users
0 Reactions
1,188 Views
MrHappie
Joined: 25.03.2010

Hello everyone :f_drink:,

this time I got kind of a different hand, where I decided to try and pull off a big semi-bluff OTT. I would like to get some opinions about whether this is a terrible play or if it's at least somewhat plausible.

So far, Villain has looked like a reg, an aggressive restealer (3 out of 9), CBets OTF a lot. Preflop I go for a pretty standard OR from the CO, get 3Bet by Villain and decide to defend as I have position and Villain seems like he likes to resteal aggressively.

Flop is somewhat OK, I know Villain will CBet almost always, so I am going to float as I got middle pair and backdoor FD, possibly trying to stab at the pot OTT. OTT I pick up a FD. When Villain skips second barrel OTT, I think he has either a pocket pair (TT, QQ, KK), spade FD or complete air (sets would've definitely continued betting, same with big Ace hands like AKo, AKs, AJo, AJs).

At this point, I am thinking how much to bet or whether to take a free card. In the end, I decide to overbet-shove, because the size of the pot as related to our stacks is very awkward. I don't want to give any possible spade FDs any kind of decent odds to contemplate a call (or even raise-shoving with spade FD by the Villain himself) and the texture of the board is so bad that I don't think I get paid OTR by his mediocre hands if I hit my Flush. I think I should be able to fold out all the mentioned pocket pairs, spade FDs, even some big Ace hands he might have himself, as well as all his air. I am possibly representing a big Ace hand like AKo, 2P or sets.

Originally, I was pretty angry at myself, but after thinking about it, this play makes more sense to me, so I would like some input.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 3067339
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.71 (16 VPIP, 14 PFR, 1.5 AF, 6.5 3Bet preflop, 56% FvSteal, 3 out of 9 resteal preflop, CBet flop 5 out of 7, WTSD 27 (out of 11 opportunities), sample 147 hands)
BB: $5.00
UTG: $7.37
UTG+1: $5.20
UTG+2: $8.13
MP1: $2.65
MP2: $5.51
Hero (CO): $5.00 (I play 18/13, 2 AF, 4.5 3Bet preflop, 50% Fv3Bet)

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with T :club: 9 :club:
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.55, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15) 9 :spade: 4 :spade: J :club: (2 players)
SB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.65) A :club: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.70 all in, SB calls $3.70

River: ($10.05) 7 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $10.05

Spoiler

SB shows A :spade: T :spade: (a pair of Aces)
Hero shows T :club: 9 :club: (a flush, Ace high)
Hero wins $9.63
(Rake: $0.42)


Reply
Quote
7 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

3 out of 9 is not enough to say he is re-stealing much. It is a 147 hand sample...
Your hand is ok to call.
We can bet vs a missed cbet butthe turn card helps his 3b range...
I do not like the push.


Reply
Quote
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

The sample size is so small that you barely get accurate vpip/pfr and since he has seen the flop so rarely I think it is better to forget about his postflop stats totally.

Pre, standard open and a call.
OTF you have mid pair and backdoor draws. I think this is standard call.
OTT I think it is ok to stab vs missed cbet but I'm not completely sure about the bet size.

You have a flush draw + pair so you have some equity. You should get very good fold equity with your shove so this might not be a bad move. On the other hand overbet shove might look more bluffy and he might be tempted to call.
If you bet slightly bigger than half pot, you will leave about half pot behind OTR. If he happens to call OTT with a draw and misses, you still might win at showdown. I also think a bit over half pot bet should generate ok fold equity too.


Reply
Quote
Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Agree with that it's not a large sample. I'd call here as well with T9s. We are IP so we do not need to push that necessary. We won't let him fold better hands so the principle (reason) of betting here doesn't apply.


Reply
Quote
Fanko
Joined: 24.08.2010

Pretty easy check behind on the turn, betting makes very little sense, as your calling range is crushed so hard on that board.


Reply
Quote
tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

I guess we are too behind OTT. Yes, your play makes sense with AX and that is what your represent most of the time. But your vaillain also could AX in his 3b and he X turn as caller with AQ,AJs most probably. With AK i guess he would bet turn for value or it is a trap with set Of AA, so we are kicking out only QQ,KK(12), but he could also have AJs,AQ,AK(27). I don't think it is pretty good situation for bluff, but also I don't like your play bcs of have position. You have free card OTT why don't you like to use your position?


Reply
Quote
MrHappie
Joined: 25.03.2010

Originally posted by Hesticus
Agree with that it's not a large sample. I'd call here as well with T9s. We are IP so we do not need to push that necessary. We won't let him fold better hands so the principle (reason) of betting here doesn't apply.

I think I should have very decent fold equity against better hands like AK, AQ, AT, KK and QQ which he shouldn't be calling the shove with. If I bet, say, 1/2 pot, I think there's a decent chance he's not folding his AK, AQ. Spade FDs should be folding here as well, while a 1/2 pot bet OTT again gives them decent odds to call (or shove over my bet OTT which I probably can't call).

Originally posted by tiltmonk
... With AK i guess he would bet turn for value or it is a trap with set Of AA, so we are kicking out only QQ,KK(12), but he could also have AJs,AQ,AK(27). I don't think it is pretty good situation for bluff, but also I don't like your play bcs of have position. You have free card OTT why don't you like to use your position?

I think set of AA is highly unlikely due to the board texture. Unless he had A♠:A♣: (which he can't, since the A♣: came OTT), he should be betting any of his sets big here with all kinds of draws possible on this board. AJ same story. AQ and AK should IMO be folding to the shove a lot of the time (while possibly not folding to a smallish bet). I think I kinda used my position to make this play - the turn check by reg IMO clearly shows he doesn't have a monster here, therefore I should have a fair chunk of fold equity.


Reply
Quote
tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

I guess it depends on the villain. Good tag at micro easily could XR(shove) OTT with Nut draw or TPTK, nit will not probably X here with top set or set, he will just shove all his strong hands. (Vs agro - I'm nit and my action sometime depends on villain - if villain has higher than average AFr OTT - i will let him just shove on me).


Reply
Quote