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KK77ss - overpair + 2nd nutflushdraw

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Party, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $71.13 (284.5 bb)
BB: $27.38 (109.5 bb)
MP: $26.58 (106.3 bb)
CO: $14.99 (60 bb)
BTN: $24.89 (99.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7♥: K♦: 7♠: K♥:
MP raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, BTN raises to $3.75, Hero calls $3.65, BB folds, MP calls $2.90, CO folds

Flop: ($12.35) 4♥: J♥: 2♣: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($12.35) Q♣: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN checks

River: ($12.35) J♠: (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $5.87, Hero calls $5.87, MP folds

Results:

Spoiler

$24.09 pot ($1.20 rake)
Final Board: 4♥: J♥: 2♣: Q♣: J♠:
Hero showed 7♥: K♦: 7♠: K♥: and won $22.89 ($13.27 net)
MP mucked and lost (-$3.75 net)
BTN showed A♠: 8♠: 7♦: T♦: and lost (-$9.62 net)

Villain is quite aggressive preflop.

Is it ok to play our hand like a bluffcatcher all streets? Suppose villain BU bets flop 3way 2/3 pot, what should we do?
Would you consider leading turn?
Is our river call ok, given likelihood that QJ would bet earlier in the hand, and bare AA is likely not betting (so we mainly lose only to Jx)

Let's say villain has 89TJ here, is river a clear valuebet? Do you like the size?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Bluff catching what you did seems like the best option, but if you think 1 of the players could call with less than an over pair on the turn you could consider making a thin value bet and even then, you could hit your draw as back-up, but it’s close for sure.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Padelbro
Joined: 21.01.2010

If villain is really too aggressive pre, might go with cold-4b.

Flop we're not getting away from this, no matter what villain bets. Only exact hand we're afraid of is AA with NFD. I would crai.

Turn you're afraid of QJ, but there is a ton of draws out there. I dont see us folding, and if you bet you must bet big and then you're priced in. Difficult spot, I would still go with this hand.

River nice bluffcatch. Pretty safe thin valuebet for J when amazingly everything missed and no one bets any street. J might be still bluffcatched if betting smaller sizing. Line makes sense with Jxxx imo.


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ZakYoun270
Joined: 10.12.2015

With SPR of <2 and especially if BTN is pretty wide I'd be tempted to lead the flop here. As for the merits of flat calling vs cold four betting I think this is a spot where hud stats could be quite useful. Ideally we'd like to quantify the probability of not only BTN but also MP and CO having aces. A tight UTG opener will have AA around 20% of the time, for example, and it's not uncommon for CO to flat raggedy aces in his spot especially if BTN is a maniac. On the other hand if BTN is not a maniac and just a strong aggressive player then he himself will have aces quite frequently.

I think the river call is a bit optimistic, unless BTN has been observed to bluff at an excessively highly frequency. It's not profitable for him to bluff in that spot on the river into two people.


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