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Decision on the river

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FrozenElf
Joined: 06.07.2015

I was thinking for a while on the river in this hand, all i was thinking was "What the hell do i do??"

I really couldnt make sense of his play any insight to what he had would be greatful, i dont think i was winning thats all i thought his stats were 27/7 over 17 hands witch isnt helpfull.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $29.91 (119.6 bb)
BB: $50.55 (202.2 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $25 (100 bb)
CO: $25.49 (102 bb)
BTN: $29.25 (117 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J♥: A♠:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 6♣: A♣: 2♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.10) 5♠: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

River: ($10.10) 5♦: (2 players)
BB bets $4.83, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$10.10 pot ($0.45 rake)
Final Board: 6♣: A♣: 2♥: 5♠: 5♦:
BB mucked and won $9.65 ($4.65 net)
Hero mucked J♥: A♠: and lost (-$5 net)


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6 replies
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I think I could find a call in this situation. AA is usually 3betting preflop, 66 and 22 are usually raising the flop, 55 is usually folding the flop, 65 is not always calling preflop and is often raising the flop, 43 is not always calling preflop and might raise the turn... In the range that we beat, he could have worse Ax and busted flushdraws... We need to be good in 24% of cases.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Agree with the above. The range of villain that he displays doesn't seem very much likely he has the goods. In addition, the amount villain bets let me think he is weaker than I wants to display.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

He bets after the fd didn't completed, moreover with the weird looking bet, just call those off, mostly bluffs, he has no reason to donk looking at your line and 5 making no difference in terms of your potential continuance


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Pot odds rule. Don't try to guess if you are winning or not, because you can't, not even with second nuts or 7 high. In this case you should probably think about folding since your's close to the bottom of your range. You shouldn't fold much because of the big pot odds. (Folding AK and worse here would definitely be exploitable. Don't know about AJ.)


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

I would not call a donk bet from the BB on the river for sure. And after he was c/c ing all the way OOP. He could have any pocket pair as he called a raise from MP, if he hit the board, it is a set.

A slow played set is possible, although I would not do that with a flush draw on the flop. I would c/r. Then the board paired hinting a full house.

Your hand (TP) may not have two streets of value, although you may choose to play it that aggressively, but you inflate the pot a little bit too much.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Either that. Or he could be bluffing:)


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