J2s bubble

I would bet our self with 2 pair to get value and protect our hand on the flop. As played it’s a nasty spot for sure. Especially in a 45 man when we dealing with a flat pay-out structure and with 4 shorter stacks in play I would still fold our 2 pair. Even with in mind it’s unlikely he will ever shove with better hands and most likely only with strong draws and top pair.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Your hand is +ev (more than 50% against his range). You risk 1.5 BIs to become a chip leader on the bubble which is for sure worth more than +3 BIs so you need far less than 40% to call. Easy easy easy easy easy easy call.

Originally posted by nsavov
Your hand is +ev (more than 50% against his range). You risk 1.5 BIs to become a chip leader on the bubble which is for sure worth more than +3 BIs so you need far less than 40% to call. Easy easy easy easy easy easy call.

You are considering ICM in this calc? Even do if yes I won't risk in a limped and wet pot any money at all, because the lowest kicker and possibility of straight or flush.

Worst case scenario youre up against a set, which is unlikely since the only set he could reallly have here is 222, he would definitely raise TT and JJ here preflop. So youre probably against a draw, 89, Q9, KQ, gets worse if its spades, but even if he has these hands here youre very very close to a coinflip here. I say you definitely need to call this, since we are not (always) interested in getting IN the money but actually winning it all, taking spots like these is necessary to win mmt sngs.

ICM in this spot is very nasty here. I don’t have calculated it with this chip dynamic, but I wouldn’t be surprised you need to win this hand more than 60% to make a call profitable. Maybe it’s good idea to use ICM calculator for a spot like this.