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A4s combodraw turn c/r

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Etnamagnetron
Joined: 07.07.2017

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 161.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 105 BB
MP: 80 BB
CO: 201.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ 4♥

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 3♥ Q♣ 5♥
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) 9♣
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB raises to 32.5 BB, Hero ?

villain's image is rather tight based on 26 hands, which isn't many at all but no extreme moves yet. most players are pretty straightforward on nl2, so i don't presume he would c/r with worse than a set or K♥Q♥
calling this huge turn raise gives us around 20% pot equity but i tend to call to see the river. what do you think?


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4 replies
GleDi713
Joined: 19.07.2017

Let's suppose that he has a set (strongest hand at that board). On the river you have 11 outs (exluding Qh and 9h which probably give him a winning hand). With 46 unseen cards you get 3.2 to 1 odds (about 24%). You have to call 23.5 BB in the turn so you have to win at least a total of 75.2 BB to break even. Considering that at the moment you had to make the decision there were already 47BB on the pot and cosidering your opponent commitment, it looks like you would be able to get the maximum of 105BB. So unless you fold you are in good shape there.


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TJtheTJ
Joined: 12.10.2011

We don't get direct odds to call if he has only nutted hands, but we should have solid implied odds as even if we hit, 99% of nl2 players won't fold a set OTR. Plus if he also does this with a FD sometimes we have enough equity to call here even without implied odds.

So I would still call. If we didn't have the gutshot here I would definitely fold though.


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Etnamagnetron
Joined: 07.07.2017

thanks guys for your opinions! on a blank river villain shoved, easy fold.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I think calling justifies the reasoning here indeed. We can draw to nuts even.


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