4/2 Rule wrong? Or is it me after a few beers right now :)

Hey Davjjar915,

You have made your calculation based on the wrong number of outs. Villain has 6 outs to a Full House (3 x Qs, 3 x7s) and 1 out to Quads for a total of 7 outs.

This gives him about 28% (7 x 4) to hit on the turn or river, however if he misses the turn he will pick up an additional 3 outs to a FH and be around 20% (10 x 2) for the river.

Hope this helps

Laz

Thanks for the reply.

But I thought we are supposed to calculate our equity from the point of view of the one behind?

For example, if the tables were turned and we had the set and wanted to know our equity on the flop (all-in), we would look at the Villains equity first and minus that from 100 to get our equity, no?

P.S.
"This gives him about 28% (7 x 4) to hit on the turn or river, however if he misses the turn he will pick up an additional 3 outs to a FH and be around 20% (10 x 2) for the river." That doesn't reflect his equity as he doesn't have to hit and is already ahead .

The 4/2 rule is a rough estimate of your chances of hitting.

In your example villain has a set and you have a flush draw. So when you have 9 outs you will hit by the river roughly 4*9= 36%
But since villain has a set here he can hit a full house. That is why you only win the hand 25% (your equity). You will still hit your flush that 36% but you just won't win the hand.

Change villains hand to AQ. Then you must hit your flush in order to win but if you do hit, villain can't out-draw you. Now you can see that Equilab says your equity is 36%.

Yes, therefore I counted 8x outs, excluding the Qh which gives him House and me Flush. 8x4=32%

But as Lazza said, the Turn gives him more outs to hit the house on River. I guess in this scenario the 4/2 rules fails terribly. I know mostly it is pretty accurate.

Yup, it fails because all it can do is tell you how often you hit your out. But if you don't necessarily when every time you hit your out, then it can't give you a correct answer.

Is there any quick way to determine my Equity against sets, since 4/2 rule isn't apparently cutting it? It's quite important to know in order to make the right decision.

Unfortunately no. In these spots you can use the 4/2 rule and then take some % out of it.

Hey Davjjar915,

The 4/2 rule is only appropriate for measuring your own chances to improve to a better hand. You can input different scenarios into our free tool, PokerStrategy.com Equilab.

With a bit of practice, you will soon get an automatic feel for what your equity is against a single hand, multiple hands or hand ranges.

If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to ask.

Cheers

Laz