PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 163.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 611.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (BB): 144.6 BB
UTG: 172.8 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 110 BB
CO: 133.6 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ Q♠
fold, MP raises to 2.4 BB, CO calls 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.4 BB
Flop: (7.6 BB, 3 players) 2♣ 4♥ 3♠
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks
Turn: (7.6 BB, 3 players) 7♠
Hero bets 4 BB, MP calls 4 BB, fold
River: (15.6 BB, 2 players) 7♦
Hero bets 20 BB, MP calls 20 BB
I think villain's range on the river is mostly composed of overcards like A-high or K-high that called turn for showdown value and some flush draws that missed (although we block some of these, he can still have hands like KTs. 98s, T9s). I don't think he has lots of overpairs, since he would probably bet those for protection on the flop. He can have some 7s, like 87s or 76s, but not much more. I also don't think he has flopped the straight given how he played.
So, given he seems to have lots of overcards and some 7s, I chose to overbet bluff. After analysis, I still like the bluff, but I think a smaller sizing like 60%pot might have been better so we could a better price on the bluff while still having villain folding most of his overcards. What do you guys think?
