Give-Me-The-Dead-Money-Hand No. 2

I'm not sure how relevant your EV calculations are here.

I guess your assumption how often UTG calls vs this squeeze is ok. He probably defends around 40%. However that range doesn't look very good to me. KQo is crap. QQ might be a call pre also, probably calls some lower pocket pairs too than just TT.

But that is not the point. I want to know how did you came up with that everyone folds 62%? There are 3 guys in the hand.
Also your equity will drop if more than just 1 guy calls. And using your raw equity isn't that great if you are not all-in.

And about that flop bet, not a great spot imo. You are facing two villains who called a squeeze pre. And you are betting too big. So you are basically crossing your hands and hoping neither one has a king here.

The bet size is problematic because you really don't have many bluffs here. But when you do have bluffs you are risking a lot. Your villains probably don't have a super strong hand either so with your value hands you are isolating yourself against sets and AK. So if you decide to bet your sizing should be about 25-35%.

I like your approach to the game of thinking in terms of EV. But just remember that these calculations are stupefyingly difficult when

• there is more than one opponent
• there are more bets to come

Thus I didn't even read your assessment of your chances (the math). It is qualitatively wrong, even if you, by pure chance, sometimes happen to get close to the right answer (that nobody knows, not even Snowie and similar).

I think most good players at the micros focus way too much on preflop play, in particular on stealing small preflop pots. This is not necessary at this level, and it might not be the best play for two reasons: If preflop is perfect but postflop is leaky, then that "autoprofit" is gone. Even with good postflop play, it may be better to play small preflop in order to keep players in rather than out (because they suck postflop).

Originally posted by la55i
I want to know how did you came up with that everyone folds 62%? There are 3 guys in the hand.

UTG Call Raise Range + UTG 4Bet Range = 5%
UTG OR Range = 13 %

So he will go on with: 5/13 = 38 %
So he will fold 100% - 62%. -> Now if he does not call/raise -> the other villians will probably not call/raise as well because if they call the or they will not have the hands that they raise/push. Yes -> this is not correct for 100% but most of the times they do not call-or the same hands that they call/raise this huge raise. ... Not sure how good I am with that ... maybe I am totally wrong ... but that the idea behind this.

Originally posted by la55i
Also your equity will drop if more than just 1 guy calls. And using your raw equity isn't that great if you are not all-in.

Yes actually if utg calls -> the chance that other guys will call as well is much higher because of call-potsize-ratio.

Originally posted by la55i
And about that flop bet, not a great spot imo. You are facing two villains who called a squeeze pre. And you are betting too big. So you are basically crossing your hands and hoping neither one has a king here.

Mhm yes i have no idea how to figure this out in a correct way that does not take me hours of analyses. I just did this by the structure of the board. It is a good c-bet board. I checked out how they hit the boards. For example:

QQ-TT,AKo-AQo,AQs,KQs -> hits 29% the K for a TP. Some of them could be scared of me holding AA as well. Some of them may be scared of holding a better KX. But probably this guys would call at least one time as well. It is a bluff-cbet for some % for sure. It is not like only value. But vs some hands i am ahead as well. But I played a strong hand and probably I do not think they call hands that Ive got beat here. If I think about folding this hand on flop i does not feel good about it. And I do not like to see Turn a J or higher which would make me give up the hand.

Originally posted by la55i
The bet size is problematic because you really don't have many bluffs here. But when you do have bluffs you are risking a lot. Your villains probably don't have a super strong hand either so with your value hands you are isolating yourself against sets and AK. So if you decide to bet your sizing should be about 25-35%.

Yes thx for this. I really have to implement the "smaller-than-50-%-bet". Did not used it that much at all.
Note this.

Originally posted by YohanN7
... it may be better to play small preflop in order to keep players in rather than out (because they suck postflop).

All in all I got that I better should focus to go for "normal/smaller" plays pre @nl2 and improve postflop. My analyses for 3bet-pots does not help me to much (, but improving thinking in ranges anyway).

BTW: I got a table last days where I did this like 4 times and got them all to fold without seeing the flop. That times all of them where masstable-player or nits and I could gain some money there. Vs loose player it is probably not a good spot and vs a reg it is not sure at all and may land in a risky pot.

Thank for ur thoughts.