Zoom 25NL 6Max QQ deep

I think this should be folded against the 3bet from MP. Otherwise this seems ok.
MP probably has sets and some flush draws that have Jh. We don't have much equity, especially 3way.

Yes, I agree with la55i, fold to 3bet from MP
MP range should be polarised to sets, and good flushdraws
Maybe there are some equity from overplayed AJo at these limits, but I don't think that's enough - especialy 3ways and 200BB+ deep

I think hard to Fold because we have called all in CO. Now not really 3 way, only vs MP range and we only lost him JJ (rarely 55 77)

With 200BB+ effective stack MP's range in this spot is quite wide and CO seems fishy enough to shove worse but after the shove we are either flipping vs his monster draws or are way behind vs his overpairs and sets so i guess we can find a tight fold.

What range would you put MP on? CO already raise shoves multiway which is quite strong, then MP 3bets the flop with 200bb deep effective stack.. To me this looks like nuts only most of the time. MP has been quite tight preflop so far so I'm not sure if this kind of guy will stack off with a flush draw on this stack depth.

Range MP is JJ , AJh,KJh,JTh . Remember now not 3 way, only HEADUP vs MP.

Yea that looks kinda reasonable. Although 77 would not be a terrible call so I would add at least some combos..

Equity Win Tie
MP2 20.47% 20.47% 0.00% QdQh
MP3 57.48% 57.18% 0.30% JJ, 7d7s, 7d7c, AhJh, KhJh, JhTh
CO 22.05% 21.75% 0.30% JJ, 7d7s, 7d7c, AJs, KhJh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, AJo

Here I added 2 combos of 77 to MP.
If CO has those hands too but then he has all AJ hands and some flush draw combos, we have only 20% equity.
I think that is not enough. And those ranges already are a bit too optimistic imo. I don't know with how many bare draws will CO raise shove OTF in a squeezed pot.. And I really don't think MP should 3bet shove when this deep with a pair that probably isn't good + non nut FD.

Why u care about CU here? We not vs CU now. He all in and we called.

Now we only vs MP with (217-85,16) BB. MP has almost JJ, but he has many FD too, and he all in because he OP(he dont want call)

I care about CO because we can't totally forget that he existed.

Now that MP shoves, we have to call 132bb and the total pot will be roughly 519bb, right? That would mean we need about 25% equity to call profitably?
Against range: JJ, 7d7s, 7d7c, AhJh, KhJh, JhTh <<--- we have about 27%, so this looks fine.

But now that CO is all-in and still fighting for a part of the pot, our equity to win the main pot just dropped. So now we don't win the total pot 27% of the time anymore.
I modeled this situation with CardRunnersEV and it tells me that calling MP's shove here would be -18bbEV.
Assuming of course that I put everything correctly in there, but I believe I did.

And I still think that these ranges are quite optimistic and I struggle to see hands like JhTh in MP's range considering hero squeezed pre, bet the flop and called a shove when multiway. That shows so much strength that I don't believe anyone would be happy to put 200bb stack on the line with pair + non nut FD.

"Now that MP shoves, we have to call 132bb and the total pot will be roughly 519bb, right? "

NO, YOU WRONG.

We have called all in from CU. We dont need win total pot. Even we lost CU but win MP we still have + money (~47$)

What you quoted above was meant to show you that in a heads up pot it would go like that, our call would be +EV, and now that we are multiway we are actually -EV, so the fact that CO is fighting for the main pot does matter.

But if we forget about the main pot. Let's focus on MP's shove..
We have to call 132bb more to win the side pot that has MP's shove 132bb in it. So now we need 33% equity. That is -EV for us.

Can you please explain how we win 47$ if we lose to CO and win MP?

i think we can already fold BEFORE the 3bet really. MP is perfectly capable of having All set combo's here, he's rather nitty and were deep so i can see him set-mining all the pp's. Also with the fishier player behind i give even more credit to this play. Also i would consider more PP's in his range rather than SC as these are easier to play: Either he hits, or he misses. With SC there's this middle ground of 'hitting a fd' etc, and i don't see a nit getting fancy with those in a squeezed pot 200bb deep.

And even if he does have the SC's, the SC's that are in his range we're all flipping against or are even behind as they're all combo draws or have overcards to our QQ.

Funky spot i have to say.

We lost CO : 217 - 85 = 132 BB

Now we vs MP with 132 BB. If we win him then at the end we have 132(win MP) -85 (lost C0))= 47 $.

I am wrong?

I didn't say this is ez Call.

I said Hard to Fold.

Nooo it doesn't work like that.

You are right that IF we lose vs CO and IF we win MP we are still making 47bb (these were big blinds, not $).

But this doesn't happen always. Sometimes we lose. So now we want to know how often we will win and figure our our expected value on the long run.

Here is an example:
If you win in lottery tomorrow, you will win millions. So then you should of course play it?
Not necessarily, the chance of winning is so small that on the long run (if you buy thousands of tickets) you will just lose money.

Or if we throw a dice and I play you 2$ every time the number is 1 - and you pay me 1$ every time the number is 2,3,4,5 or 6. Would you want to play that game?

Same thing with this hand. Yes if you win, you win big. But you win so rarely that if we play this exact hand 100 times you are losing money.

Agree rarely we win total Pot.

Remember again this is not 3 way . After call all in from CO, we only vs MP. Now effective stack (217-85,16).

Fold is right. But Call is "ok".

If fold is right because we would lose money, then there is no other option that would be "ok".
We are interested in making the most money we can, not gambling.

I put this scenario into a EV calculator that went this exact spot through 100 000 times and tells us we lose -20bb/100 on the long run.

Do u know when we Fold we lost 85.16 BB ?

I've played a fair amount of Zoom and I thought CO was a fish because he has less than 100BB and a random no stats, so preflop I was squeezing for value to isolate the fish. I knew we both wanted the fish which is a typical gladiatorial theme at Zoom poker tables. When the villain overshoves on flop, I thought to myself "What a spot to fold me out deep..." because you don't need much to beat the fish and I eventually timed out. And even the math checks out. Yeah, but I thought so during hand too.