QQ97ss 3b pot oop

Fold to 3bet, you just have to fold so many flops that it's not profitable to call oop.

If we asked that player why he bet the river, he would probably answer "I'm ahead of his range". Which is true, but if asked "What hand will call that river bet?" he would probably realize that he can't beat over 50% of calling range so it doesn't work as valuebet. The only hand that might bluff catch the river is AK/KQ. Besides that there are all the trips/boats. He should check it back.

Thanks - agree with all.

Would you guys fold this vs 10% covsbu 3b?

I think call is ok. Close, little worse and clear fold, little better more connected / ds and cant fold. This could be either way imo, maybe leaning more to folding against reasonably skilled opponent.

Turn is interesting, as villain just bombs it. Problem with our hand is that if we check river he should very clearly checkback hands like he has here and not bluff with it, and we get no more value. He is repping quite much stronger hand than he actually has, AA with NFD or a 5 maybe. I dont know therefore should hero maybe check-raise turn to get it in preventing xbacks, or donk shove some rivers? I mean now we have the nuts, but if we check-raise some decent combodraws too it would be horrible if he folds his AA after betting so huge OTT.

SPR 4 with a hand that isn't able to stack off or continue on most flops. It's not so much about opponents range, whether it is 4%, 8%, 10% or 12%. It's about hero's hand playability. SPR 4 is pretty much shove or fold territory (although not as much as 100bb game where SPR would be 3,5).

If we look at how often QQ93 hits flops, the graph is not smooth (as we would like to have in these SPR 3-4 situations).

We need around 40% equity to stack off, and that happens only 25% of times. That graph is against AA, which shows how often hero hits something on the flop. Of course opponent's range is wider, but hero can't c-raise bare QQ overpair on the flop anyway. So even to semibluff, hero needs to hit something (or use QQ blockers). I think that hero is going to fold too many flops or get it in with -EV too often compared to situations where he makes profit postflop as he is oop. If hero was IP, the situation would be way better.

Yeah, the graph is vs AA and hero's hand is not QQ93. But it's hard to defend this profitably, that is true.

Ah, that 7 turned to 3 in my head. Anyway, the graph is quite identical with QQ97. It's against AA cos that way it shows how often we hit something decent. If we just put it up against range, it's deceiving. If the flop comes 842ss (flush we don't have), what are we going to do? TT4? Etc.

Here is the graph vs. 10% 3bet range: