Stealing vs a table captain fish on BB, close to bubble / final table [45-man]

So far, I can tell we are at the last 2 tables with 15-13 players remaining and 7 gets paid.
I would still steal from the BTN and fold on a 3bet of 1 of the blinds. I don’t think this is even a marginal stealing spot on the BTN, Off course I prefer stealing with a suited connector then a weak ace like this, but I expect it’s still profitable to do.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I'm on the same page as SDK here.
Our "default" (as if) steal% from BTN "should" be well above 50% from a exploitative point where people overfold/not defending their blinds too much. A6o fits well within a 50% range. Besides, we have position.

1. yes.
2. only if SB has solid stats and(!) BB is 3bet happy I could see a fold here
3. we could even go higher (up to 70%) if we understand (calling/defend) ranges from blinds and what boardtextures (not) to bet

I see,
thanx both guys, much appreciated!!

I think you should always raise any ace on the button.

Originally posted by dddq8842
I think you should always raise any ace on the button.

True. Only with heavy ICM in play you could consider folding the weaker Ax hands. That could happen at for example the bubble of a 45 man like this with re-shove happy players in de blinds.

Originally posted by SDK1987
True. Only with heavy ICM in play you could consider folding the weaker Ax hands. That could happen at for example the bubble of a 45 man like this with re-shove happy players in de blinds.

I agree with you, but hero has 32bb which is enough to r/f when sb,bb resteals.
Also, in $0.25 sng it's highly unlikely they will purposely put icm pressure on you when attempting to steal the blinds.

That’s right. It was only an example.