Hi everyone,
here I have TT in the CO and decide to raise preflop first in. The BTN calls and I hit a set on a very connected board. I decide to cbet for value and protection. On the turn comes an A which is a pretty ugly card since villain has some Kx in his range. I decide to keep the pot small and check. The river brings a blank, but I decide to check anyway since I will most times only get called by a better hand. Now villain pushes and I have a tough decision. In that moment I was using my time bank thinking how often he will do this with a king. And I came to the conclusion that he could push here with a king, but he will do that more often with a busted draw or an A. After the session I calculated this spot in detail. When I fold the river I have an equity of 10.47% left. When I call and lose my equity is 0% but if I call and take down the pot I have an equity of 24.40%. This means that I have to win the pot more than 42.91% of the time to make a call profitable. If I put him on a range of some pocket pairs (JJ, 99,88) some suited and offsuited (gapped)-connectors and some Ax, Kx and Qx Combos I have around ~60% equity against this range. Seems like an "easy" call, doesn't it?
PokerStars - 50/100 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 14.8 BB (VPIP: 34.72, PFR: 3.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 144)
UTG: 17.15 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 27.27, Hands: 36)
MP: 20.25 BB (VPIP: 19.61, PFR: 17.68, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 210)
Hero (CO): 17.47 BB
BTN: 51.88 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
SB: 13.45 BB (VPIP: 15.98, PFR: 13.94, 3Bet Preflop: 7.19, Hands: 561)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ T♥
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q♠ J♣ T♦
Hero bets 3.25 BB, BTN calls 3.25 BB
Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero checks, BTN checks
River: (13 BB, 2 players) 2♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 46.13 BB and is all-in, Hero???
