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Evaluation of bottom set vs UTG bet/3bet range shove

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Iscre4m
Joined: 13.12.2017

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

UTG: $14.38 (144 bb)
MP: $11.95 (120 bb)
CO: $11.63 (116 bb)
BU: $10.00 (100 bb)
SB: $14.47 (145 bb)
BB (Hero): $24.63 (246 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 2 2
UTG raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 2 players fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.25) T K 2 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.80, MP folds, CO calls $0.80, Hero raises to $2.60, UTG raises to $14.08 (all-in), CO folds, Hero calls $11.48

UTG: Unknown.

Preflop: For me it is an iffy call with 22-66. I'm not sure if it is a profitable call. I call because it's a multi-way pot and some Fun players are to be expected to stack off lighter. When HU vs UTG, it's a fold unless I'm sure that I can x/r bluff many flop with good fold EQ.

Flop UTG cbet/3bet shove range in MWP:
1. Supper nit = KK, TT. My EQ = 8%, then it should be a fold.
2. Somewhat TAG/LAG = KK, TT, KTs, QhJh, AhQh, AhJh. My EQ = 41 %. Then it is a close call, since I get 38% to call.

3. If FUN player: (I'll add AA and AK only), So, KK, TT, KTs, QhJh, AhQh, AhJh, AK, AA. Then my EQ = 72% and it's a good call.

My conclusion is that if it's very close to either fold or call, then it doesn't matter what I do and can fold. Especially when it's a little deeper.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

This is an interesting spot for sure, but against an unknown I would most likely go broke here. You only far behind against higher sets and he could have some flush draws and 2 pairs in his range to make a call like this profitable.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

1) you are BB so you have to call only 2bb pre 2) there is an open and 2 callers now ==> I think it is a clear set mine spot. You get so good price. And for me this would be setmine vs UTG only also.
OTF I think it is reasonable to stack off. I would assume he can play sometimes AA,AK,KTs and some combo draws this way.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Preflop it is a must call. You have to defend this from the BB, no matter if vs 1 or many players.
Postflop UTG can have AA, AK, KTs, KK, TT, FDs and combo draws too, so this is a go broke situation.


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