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FD to nuts OTT

9 Posts
8 Users
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sdf256
Joined: 21.07.2016

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
UTG honspeator ($2.70) 54bb
UTG+1 Hero ($5.62) 112bb
CO oxxx1m0 ($5) 100bb
BTN guzia1970 ($5) 100bb
SB spimits ($3.40) 68bb
BB bulatovaelen ($5.48) 110bb
Pre-Flop: (0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 4♣: A♣:

1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, oxxx1m0 calls $0.15, guzia1970 calls $0.15, 1 fold, bulatovaelen calls $0.10

Flop: 6♣: 5♣: 4♠: ($0.62, 4 players)
bulatovaelen checks, Hero bets $0.39, oxxx1m0 calls $0.39, 1 fold, bulatovaelen folds

I think cbet here is good. If they fold fine.. I won the pot right here. If they call we build up the pot in case I hit the flush, if they raise I think I can call.

Turn: J♥: ($1.40, 2)
Hero bets $0.80, oxxx1m0 raises to $1.95, Hero?

Turn doesnt help me at all. But I cbet because I still have that FD to nuts. Maybe x/c would be a better option?


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8 replies
Iscre4m
Joined: 13.12.2017

You are getting 3:1 odds OTT, question is if you can win that $ 1.15 OTR after you decide to call turn raise.

Turn x/c also would be 3:1 if Villain bets 1/2PSB, so both lines are about similar, except bet/call screams FD, but x/c could be overpairs as well.

Personally, i like to x/r here with nut FD's and sets. It's unlikely for most people to call OTF w/ sets and straights so I'd expect Villain's range to be on a weaker side and that range fears turn x/r.


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GridironAssassin
Joined: 19.12.2014

Cbet is probably fine. I lean towards checking in this spot. Often times I imagine I have the same hand without the flush draw and play my NFD in a similar manner. Here you have a pair of 4’s on a dynamic board. If I had Ac7c or Ac3c or Ac2c and maybe AcKc (would usually check this often too) I like the cbet much more. With A3cc or A7cc or A2cc you have a straight draw to go along with your flush draw which leaves you with more equity against him when he has flopped huge (flopped straight, flopped set, etc.). With A4cc it is risky to count the 2 fours and the 3 aces left in the deck as outs because you can be crushed already. Also, keep in mind, he can have a lower flush draw also.

In this spot, as played, I lean towards folding turn. He can easily have a set, a straight, two pair, QJcc, K10cc, J10cc, etc and you aren’t doing so hot against that range of possibilities.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

You can x/c turn. Betting leads you to tricky spots .. like this. Betting isn't a completely bad play either though.
I'm folding as played. You can't count your A / 4 as clean outs, and it'll be hard to extract value even if you did hit your flush.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think I might prefer betting a bit. We don't need that much fold equity for our bet to be good, we have decent amount of hands and we still might have the best hand in case villain has a draw.
As played I think it is quite clear call vs this sizing. We need 21.7% equity to break even there. If we have 9 outs our hit chances are 19.5 so that would mean we only have to extract 0.6$ more OTR when we hit. And ofc sometimes A or 4 might be an out too. Even if we counted only our clean outs our hit odds would be 15.2%. Meaning that we have to get 2.3$ more when we hit. That is less than half pot so it seems plausible.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think that if you are about to fold here, you should not cbet the turn then...


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LacsapR
Joined: 14.07.2011

I'd also cbet OTT and call this raise...river is an easy decision then


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

Am I missing something? I see 8 clean outs to the flush, since we might not be comfortable if Jc comes to pair the board. That gives a 17.4% chance of hitting.

Are we worried about 7c, in case of a straight flush?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

No you are not missing anything. It was a brainfart from me :f_biggrin:
I just quickly counted 4c as a dirty out without realizing that we have it. So you are correct, 8 clean outs.


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