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[Closed] Weak play or good read?

Hand discussions for Fixed Limit

Last Post by _Anonymous_ 20 years ago

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_Anonymous_

28.06.2006, 15:24 0

Hey Guys,

Like some opinions on this hand, felt good while playing but in reflection it might have been a bad one.
(sorry about the crappy formatting, coudn't copy/paste it directly so I had to add the images by hand, anybody know a better way maybe?)

Party Poker ($0.05/$0.10 limit). Hand converted by Check Raised hand converter

Preflop (10 players): Hero is MP1 with
2 folds. HERO calls. MP2 2 bets. 2 folds. CO calls. BTN calls. 2 folds. HERO calls.
Flop (9.4 small bets ($0.47) in pot, 4 players):

HERO checks. MP2 bets. CO folds. BTN folds. HERO calls.
Turn (5.7 bets ($0.57) in pot, 2 players):
HERO bets. MP2 2 bets. HERO calls.
River (9.7 bets ($0.97) in pot, 2 players):

HERO checks. MP2 checks.
Summary:
HERO has a pair of Sevens [ ] and won $0.97 (9.7bb)
MP2 has High card. [ ]

Alright, he raises preflop, meaning either a pocketpair or expected overcards. Didn't have much of a read on his betting behaviour except that he raised a lot when actually in the pot.
The flop bet was really quick so I figured he didn't hit it and tried to scare players away.
Turn raise was just as quick, seemed like a scare tactic again.
I checked the river in case of the flush draw (would've called him for the pot odds)

I pegged him for overcards that missed the flop, called his turn raise with the same reasoning (and the fact that if he had a likely ace it would now be tainted).
Somewhere in the reasoning I completely lost the notion that he could've flopped a set on the flop.

Weak play or good read?

5 replies

_Anonymous_

28.06.2006, 17:24 0

Use this link when you post hands.

If you put him on either an overpair or overcards on the flop, your equity is only about 40% against an average (avg for .05/.1) range of hands, here. There's a decent chance you're dominated on the flop, so you'd be drawing to only 3 outs. This looks like a fold flop to me, even if you think it's just a continuation bet. Most of the hands he's cbetting with beat you, and you don't have any real draws.

Board: 3s 8h 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.2639 % 37.86% 01.40% { Ac7c }
Hand 2: 60.7361 % 59.34% 01.40% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

_Anonymous_

28.06.2006, 20:16 0

Ah thanks Emu, that was the type of link I was looking for (and I see I should've looked better).

Thanks for the pokerstove analysis, gues I have to start using it.

Posted the hand also because I think it's one of my typical mistakes, being a tad too tenacious when it's heads up. (And I get away with it far too often, get's bad habits going).
Looking at your numbers I have to agree, fold flop.

tnx!

PS I find that calculating equity in the game isn't something I'm really good at (anymore than the crudest indication), do you just analyse a lot using pokerstove or are there a few simple equitions for it you do by head?

_Anonymous_

28.06.2006, 23:55 0

I don't use pokerstove in game. Honestly there isn't enough time to do that and make your decision, so I go by what I know in the game and check with pokerstove if anything is questionable.

If you have the nut flush draw on the flop (w/o overcards) your equity is 35%, nut straight draw (w/o overcards or paired board, rainbow board) is ~30%. The only solid values you can approximate are hands where you're drawing to the nuts (or near nuts, in some cases), where your opponents hand doesn't matter. If pokertracker says PlayerA raises with 6.7% of hands, I really can't do a calculation in my head and say that on the board 6h Qh Ts that my AhQd is a certain percent... you'd have to be a genius. Just check pokerstove after when you feel your play wasn't the right one.

_Anonymous_

29.06.2006, 14:59 0

hmm i would consider to fold this 3 outer on the flop for 4.7:1

_Anonymous_

30.06.2006, 03:05 0

What I said