Should I fold there. Raiser was 0/0/28(VPIP/PFR/hands).
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy hand converter:
Known players:
[tg]MP2$14.45:///////;MP3$5.86:///////;CO$13.99:///////;BU$8.18:///////;SB$1.55:///////;BB$13.86:///////;UTG1$11.30:///////;UTG2$9.50:///////;MP1$10.61:///////;[/tg]
$0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J:c, J:d.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BU calls, SB raises to $0.55, Hero folds
Since he is short stack we can't call for set value here.
I guess with such a low vp$ip (admittedly over a small number of hands) and the bet size he seems to be a genuine SSS player.
If he is playing by poker strategy SSS then his range from the SB should be
77+, AJ+ and KQ against which we have 40% equity. So a call is setting us up for a bad situation however we can save money if we hit a bad flop and probably take down his stack if we hit a decent flop. Not sure how to do calculations for this.
However if we push and he is playing by SSS then he should fold everything except for TT+ and AK. TT+ and AK which is 3.47%/8.45% = 41% of his range. So he will fold 59% of the time. In theory. Against the calling range we have 12% equity.
So our EV = He folds + He calls, we win + He calls, we lose.
= (0.59 x +$0.55) + (0.41 x 0.12 x + $1.55) - (0.41 x 0.88 x $1.55)
= -$0.14
Since our EV is negative we should fold. However this is assuming he is playing by poker strategy rules. If we think he will raise/call push looser then we probably make more money because every additional hand he calls is one that we are ahead of and increases our equity.
Meh, he is looser in that spot, I am reraising and going broke vs the shorty, all day long.
Best regards,
TribunCaesar
