KQ64ds

I think he calls with any 7+. And he can't really have anything else in his valuerange, and you beat all his bluffs. Why would he bet an overpair? You have boats in your range a lot too, so I don't think it's a good spot to bluff against two people when first to act on the river.

But if you think he is bluffing, just call.

Yep... I think I must have folded him off a bluff. ♦ So you just fold here? You don't think our blockers are much use?

No, I said call is better if you think he is bluffing. That line is strange, he is repping a boat and you block it a lot. He could have some sort of T98x that he turns into s bluff without thinking much of your range. Probably I would call and see what he had. The only hand that makes sense is T98x and you beat it. Or a boat that you block.

I dont think villain should mindlessy call any 7 as the hand is played here, unless hero is way of the line with his bluffs. Hero has fullhouses and maybe that missed SD 89 that really shouldnt be great hand and spot to bluff here.

Yes, that's what I was thinking, SeagalSteven. I think our line looks pretty strong.

However, I can see some merits to just calling, too.

So, question are: how often do we face a bet by a hand that beats us but which is turning itself into a bluff (like some KK type hand)? And how often does villain bet/fold a value hand here because it's hard for us to have a bluff with our line?

What hands would hero raise there? I wouldn’t fold 7xxx as that blocks quite heavily hero’s valuerange. Hero shouldn’t have many QQ’s as he called flop. But I wouldn’t probably bet 7 either. Opponent might bet-fold 44/66 but hero blocks those. You can check the frequencies of his range with PJ/ Oracle.

Yeah, I think all options have some merit, also this bluff raise, but call / fold are probably the best options.

It is about does villain bet bare 7 or even straight here when board pairs as played. If not, his betting range is very polarized to FHs / bluffs,and while our hand is decent for bluffing with blockers works also as bluffcatcher.

And I think hero's raising range is indeed narrow, maybe Q7, 76. But hero cant have total airballoons either as he calls otf, and I would not bluff missed wraps with no blockers as the hand is played - hard to have that many bluffs here either?

Yes, I think hero has to be turning a lot of made hands into bluffs here - exactly the type of hand we have - for villain to be happy about calling with 7x (doesn't mean he won't). I think he calls with boats but we block them. Puzzling hand. Btw, Kyyberi, you said villain might b/f 44 or 66 here. Wouldn't that be pretty tight? Isn't he going to be hard pressed to find enough bet/calls?

Lastly, thinking about it, with this action what should hero do with 67 ott? Wouldn't be be betting it quite often? Same with Q7, no? After all neither SB nor BB should be checking 85** should they?

This hand has bothered me a lot, as it's so strange. I played with PJ a little:

With some general assumptions, the EV of calling the river bet is +17bb. Assuming opponent valuebets 67+, checks 7+ and bluffs with the rest. Against those ranges it doesn't make sense for hero to raise.

Tim wondered that would opponent bet-fold 44/66. I said that cos it's the part of opponent's range that hero is attacking with river raise. If opponent has 7 and he bets the river with trips, he is blocking the rare hands that hero raises for value. Hero would not raise 44/66, although villain should not bet with trips. So many things in this hand that starts with the words "he shouldn't...".

I am quite sure that with the blockers it's +EV to call the river bet. The question is if the raise is more profitable. The hands that beat hero and folds to a raise are quite rare, if the opponent is a thinking one. He calls the flop after a bet and a call. So he can't have some bare KK in his hand. He has definitely either a made hand (2pairs/set) and/or a draw. If his SB range is what it should be, there aren't a lot of 74/76 type of hands. And to have just trips, he needs to have had like 75xx, T987 or something like that. And against hero's range it doesn't make sense to bet it on the river. Of course he might not be thinking much and just bets as he has trips.

If we assume that opponent bets there 7+ (when he bets worse, hero wins in any case), but only calls with 74+, he is going to fold almost 70% of times. But still, it's really close to breakeven as hero is risking 77 to win 120 (opp needs to fold 65% of times). If opponent bets everything but 53 on the river, raise has +15bb EV (assuming opponent folds everything but 74+).

I would just call. When hand goes to showdown it benefits hero a lot more than the opponent (to see hole cards). And the EV is better, as raise has a lot more "if's" than calling.