Pocket Nine's in Position vs triple barreling MP

It’s also good to know what kind of villain we are dealing with, but normal I would fold the turn for sure. Most villains aren’t 2nd barreling with a bluff and you have only 1 clean out to have a good chance to win if he would barrel some flush draws.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Well fold on turn

River is played fine because villain could have much Qx or two pair combos which you beat
Even weaker sets are possible

Yes Talisker, that is true, but by pushing the river I probably just get called by some real strong hands, like Sets (9 combos, of which i beat 6), and Straights (67s - 4 combos - which beat me). If Villain is a fish, he might call TPTK, or 2 pair, but I'm not sure of that. Let's assume he doesn't, then I get calls from 15 combos, and I beat only 6 of them. So this is why I guess a river call wouldve been best way to deal with this hand. Although it was kind of my plan to shove the river - the 3rd barrel potsized shouldve been a real good indicator that Villain is on one of these hands. I just was too fast in my decision making.

Man, today's gonna be as negative as it was as positive yesterday. Already lost 150 BB in only 150 hand, I went to showdown 9% of the time, and lost 90% of the showdowns! But then... then..... I made my 3rd royal fuckin flush in less than 3 weeks on pokerstars I could get used to it

Of course fold turn. The board is rather dry, you called otf, the turn card is a blank, so he will not bluff ott. And there is nearly nothing (76 only) that you can beat at the moment. Overpairs, top pair, monsters. Even most second pairs are better than your 99.

OTR, everything changes. You are behind against QQ, 76. Against everything else, you win. Your raise wil be called not only with QQ, 76, but also with 88, 55, 22, perhaps AA, KK, AQ, KQ. Not the best play, but this is NL2. If you have reads (opponent is a rock), just call, but against unknown on NL2, this is a raise.

Wow, you assume villain going for 150BB with tpgk only? I didn't have reads, and I suppose villain's range is stronger vs river shove after 3 barrels of ascending betsize on a dry board. Nontheless you MAY be right, since this is NL2. Thanks for the input! That kind of counters the idea of turning 2nd pair into a bluff here.

Board: 8d5cQs2s9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 65.63% 65.63% 0.00% { 9d9c }
MP3 34.38% 34.38% 0.00% { QQ+, 88, 55, AQs, JTs, 76s }

I did that quickly. Does that seem about right or did I forget some combos? Villain could call a river raise with sets(QQ,88,55), straights(67s,JTs) overpairs(AA,KK) and then I added only AQs (3 combos) for top pairs because it is kinda weak but possible.
It still looks like we have 65% equity.

Board: 8d5cQs2s9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 45.00% 45.00% 0.00% { 9d9c }
MP3 55.00% 55.00% 0.00% { QQ, 88, 55, AdAh, AdAs, AdAc, JTs, 76s }

Here is a bit more pessimistic range. Now villain doesn't call anymore with KK or AQ. And only with half of the combos of AA.

If I did the EV calculations correctly we are still making slight profit with a shove here even if we assume villain folds 0% and continues with a range that has 55% equity against us.

But does the raise have a higher expectation than a call? If villain can 3 barrel with QQ+,88,55,AQs,KQs,JTs,98s,76s,AsTs,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,AQo
(also has some bluffs in that range, that is 50 combos total)
We would have 78% equity against his range. If we then assume he folds 40% of that vs a raise and calls with that tighter range mentioned above. With 40% FE and 45% equity our EV would still be marginally smaller than with the call.

Let me know if you spot any mistakes, I might have made some ♦
But anyway it looks like your hand does quite well against villain's range here and you should be making profit with both moves. Which option is more profitable depends a bit on how wide villain will 3 barrel here and how big part of that range he is gonna fold against a raise.

Cool la55i, I am amazed by how detailed you answered to me! Your result is absolutely underlining my feelings that I should have called his river bet (not raise it). I at first glance didn't see any mistakes you made. Super work you have done there, nice dude!