AQs ~ River call

why won't he push a flush? your hand looks a lot like Ax here and not many AA QQ.
that said, we have a flush blocker, so there are not many more than 3 flush combinations (KJ KT JT). he reps about 7 value combinations and i'm not sure what are his bluffs, folding is probably alright

20/13 relatively passive player raising the river here. Alarm, Alarm.

Sux to fold here but thinking twice about the hand he is never ever bluffing and he is never ever shoving worse. Best case scenario you split.

Ingame im mb calling but when taking a second look this tends to be a fold.

Originally posted by DecMate

Do I just robot/fold this spot or do I actually consider his range and be a poker player?
Does thinking at the micros do more harm then good in these spots?

I don't have enough sample size to do a proper mass database analysis like 5 million hands or so, but i feel this spot is highly unbluffed, if the guy is repping nuts he have the 1or 2 combo of nuts, if you robot fold you print money at least against reg alias of the limit. Against some fishs you can call because they do crazy bluffs sometimes.

Thinking in terms of blocker effect to the nuts like " i have the Qs thus he have less combinations of flush , he has only 1 combo of 88 or QQ" do more harm than good for you. I used to think like that too, but people play farrrrr beyond optimal so the blocker effect is much less effective.

If you watch W34z3l streams he fold like crazy at micros, i think he did some kind of mass database analysis and knows that regular population underbluff basically all spots especially 18/16, 20/13 types of guys.

Yeah I was thinking this. It's not the fact I have 2 pair, I just consider balance but clearly I shouldn't be.
I just don't want to be overfolding.

But anyway. With all this in mind, still think the river line is optimal?
His range looks like some pairs/Ax.

Originally posted by DecMate
Yeah I was thinking this. It's not the fact I have 2 pair, I just consider balance but clearly I shouldn't be.
I just don't want to be overfolding.

But anyway. With all this in mind, still think the river line is optimal?
His range looks like some pairs/Ax.

River line is good you definetly had 2 streets, but when weak tight guy raises probably just bet/fold without specific player note.

I would cbet the Flop with the 1/3 sizing, the board is paired so you have decent amount of fold equity and can also barrel some good turns.

Now is it a clear fold, because I really don't think that people are able to value bet worse (maybe sometimes splits, so okay you have some split equity) then choose the fact, that this is massive underbluffed spot, he is reg. We have to do nitty folds especially OTR and be happy about it with intention that we safe our money. Don't look t

cool

Originally posted by MatoStar
I would cbet the Flop with the 1/3 sizing, the board is paired so you have decent amount of fold equity and can also barrel some good turns.

I don't see 1/3 into 2 players oop with air being a good option. We have no good turns other then A / Q, and a spade gives us the third nut FD on a paired board which I wouldn't barrel.

In conclusion I think perhaps at higher limits where you take range dynamics into consideration it is theoretically a call, but against a nit NL10 reg its a clear fold. Thanks for the discussion.

One point no one mentioned is the fact, that you are pretty much committed or in other words, Villain has almost zero foldequity on the river. You have to call 4,61 to win a pot of roughly 23 dollars, so this is probably very very rarely a bluff.