guys, are you calling this river or not?
To be honest I am not sure if he is capable to bet KQ or KJ for value. I would say probably not. That was the reason why I decided to fold.
Actually I think I would call on a smaller sizing, because he can use it with Kx. Now his range seems polarized and as I do not think that he would bluff in this spot often, decided to fold.
Not sure why you checking the flop in the first place.
I would bet always for value here or our villain is aggressive post-flop.
Cheers,
SDK1987
using the recommend strategy- check 100% of the time OOP in single-ray pots against regs. I am sure that is not a mistake, trying to exploit that people are stabbing too much.
I'd bet flop 50% of the pot, bet 50% of the pot turn.
In case of any massive aggression / 3bet, I'd fold.
Originally posted by MatoStar
using the recommend strategy- check 100% of the time OOP in single-ray pots against regs. I am sure that is not a mistake, trying to exploit that people are stabbing too much.
Not sure what this strategy is but it certainly does not look much balanced or with max EV vs regs. What if you have 99 on a 789 flop - are you checking that too ?
One of the reasons is that you put yourself in very tough spots postflop (like this one) having no idea what to do or what villian's range is. He can have pocket deuces trying to bluff you off or he can have JT for the nuts.
Anyway, nl10 population does not bluff too often on rivers and i tend to fold. Moreover, his bet sizing looks like hes trying to get value from a single K that would not let flop and turn go and now hit the river (e.g. AK). Not to mention that mp villain would check behind with a hand with showdown value.
This strategy is recommended by really good regs, so I trust them. The problem with balance is when you will cbet with high frequency. Because then OTT you should balance your checking range vs stabs and now you have a problem. Imo it isn't so easy and now you are exploitable. And that's the point I want to exploit villain, not defend myself vs exploits. The fact is that people stab OTF too much, so they are exploitable vs check/raise, but in this case AA isn't vulnerable, so I decided to call. But because of the fact that the river card is better for my range and I have a lot of Kx which the population would call almost every single time, I expect that he wants to get value from those hands.
Originally posted by Sunrise1912
Originally posted by MatoStar
using the recommend strategy- check 100% of the time OOP in single-ray pots against regs. I am sure that is not a mistake, trying to exploit that people are stabbing too much.Not sure what this strategy is but it certainly does not look much balanced or with max EV vs regs. What if you have 99 on a 789 flop - are you checking that too ?
One of the reasons is that you put yourself in very tough spots postflop (like this one) having no idea what to do or what villian's range is. He can have pocket deuces trying to bluff you off or he can have JT for the nuts.
Anyway, nl10 population does not bluff too often on rivers and i tend to fold. Moreover, his bet sizing looks like hes trying to get value from a single K that would not let flop and turn go and now hit the river (e.g. AK). Not to mention that mp villain would check behind with a hand with showdown value.
Well, on a board like 789 with 99 I expect that villain would stab almost every single time, because he knows that the flop hits more his range and have a decent amount of FE. So then I happily check/raise him and be happy about it, because if he had a bluff, we got a max value, because he would fold on cbet. Also you get extra value from all the other draws, pairs... so this is the case where I think it's better to check/raise, hope it's clear.
Again I disagree. Since we are checking 100% of the time the villain knows about our hand nothing. You can assume based on his bet sizing or if he checks then you know, that he mostly has marginal hands or air (or sometimes nuts on dry boards), but we have an extra info which villain hasn't.
Agree, I think his range OTR is polarized, he has twopairs+ and then some bluffs without showdown value like QTs and QJs.
This strategy is definitely ok but you must have more info on your villains. Without that info you are now in twilight zone: bluff range/ value range?
Whats does his 3 barrels mean? Then you would have a better plan to exploit other regs.
Originally posted by MatoStar
using the recommend strategy- check 100% of the time OOP in single-ray pots against regs. I am sure that is not a mistake, trying to exploit that people are stabbing too much.
Hmm okay. It might not be bad but I'm not sure if I like the "100%" in there. There could be situations where this won't work and applying these rough general rules in every situation could be bad. Also you need to have an idea how villain plays (big enough sample size). Becuase the general population does not stab too much imo. Regs could do that. But do you know he is a reg or how he plays? You didn't post any stats.
Originally posted by Sunrise1912
Not sure what this strategy is but it certainly does not look much balanced or with max EV vs regs.
It could actually be quite "balanced" or close to GTO. We are OOP and I would guess villain's calling range has an equity advantage too on this board so we can't be cbetting that frequently. I can actually agree with a check or a small bet if we are talking about how to play it more "optimally". Snowie seems to agree with this.
Originally posted by MatoStar
The problem with balance is when you will cbet with high frequency. [...] Imo it isn't so easy and now you are exploitable. And that's the point I want to exploit villain, not defend myself vs exploits.
The problem with balance is not that you will be cbetting with a high frequency. Balance is balance. Then you cbet as often as you should on specific boards with specific ranges. Then you can not be exploited. And in this situation I think the balanced or GTO way would be to check a lot. But if we decide that we are going to just 3barrel this for example. In which point you have to defend yourself against exploits? If you think a normal NL10 regular will start exploiting you much, you might give them too much credit.
Villain is a reg 27/21
bet vs missed cbet 62
call open raise from btn 14
won at showdown 52
hand sample 445
I will cbet flop and OTT is check. Like you play river is fold, 3 big bets is always strenght.
We're at NL10 and the pot isn't even 3b.
It's an easy bet, throw all your preconceived ideas away. He can have a ton of draws, all sorts of 78x hands that'll call a few bets. And if that magic 4 pops off on the river you can even triple barrel for value.
It's cool wanting to balance and thinking about range dynamics but you're clearly missing the basics if your applying that to every situation.
I do not like the idea to check on this connected board. Villain can xb and can get a free card.
I am betting flop and turn.
clearly you entered the hand with the plan to check/call 3 barrels, but then you changed your mind.
i think river is close, the main issue is that 9 is a pretty bad card, K doesn't really matter except that it makes his bet size polarize him further. if you wanted to call, it can't be that bad, i don't see too many better hands in our range and it's 2018 and regs can run big bluffs. i think we mostly just 3barrel ourselves though
We should also keep in mind, that our range is looking pretty weak. So he definitely can value bet with worse hands.
Originally posted by nitrol
I do not like the idea to check on this connected board. Villain can xb and can get a free card.
But we have a data point that people are stabbing too much, especially on flop like this, so then your point is irrelevant
I agree with MatoStar. People do stab too much and that is a datapoint you can't argue with, because it's what database analysis showed. So basically you are arguing with numbers that are proven by database analysis and are argumenting it with your assumption without any data to back it up with.
Actually it's not even that bad to be stabbing too much here, because another datapoint is that people are overfolding when they miss a cbet and they are not exploiting you by raising enough, so I think it's a good exploit to stab often. You'll just have a hard time vs someone who checks his whole range OOP, but those people are not too big of a part of the playerpool. But back to this hand..
You can play it in different ways.. I think cbetting is fine and would be considered standard by majority of players, but I think checking the whole range is definitelly fine too. I actually use that 100% check OOP in singleraise pots strategy too ♦ .
Originally posted by nitrol
I think it is ok to call the river and see what he's got.
I wouldn't call first time, rather next time. Because it's pretty rare to see someone who triple barrel bluff especially with such a big sizings. I am telling from my experience at this site (party poker).
But in general in spots where I am not sure if it's better to make a river call or not just otr, but also on other streets, I more prefer first time fold, next time call. I mean mainly some uncommon lines or not that standard, just lines in which I am not sure if people bluff enough or not.
Originally posted by Tonyx86
We should also keep in mind, that our range is looking pretty weak. So he definitely can value bet with worse hands.
Disagree, what worse hands do you expect him to bet with? I think that betting with Kx would be a thin value bet and I don't expect that someone will thin value bets 4/5 of the pot.
