[Closed] nl200 FR AKs

1, it s definitely not profitable to reshove at flop:

216.8: (216.8x2+65deadmon) = u need 43.5% equity

his shoving range: TT,99,66, T9, 78, vs this u are 32,6:67,4% underdog (equilator) , with your rr u get TA to fold (probably only hand he can raise there vs which u have fold eq, which is clearly not enough to make up for big 10,9% discrepancy

2, if u play with odds:

his raise is AWFUL! to say the least.. u have just 22$ to call for a 87$ pot on turn!!!

A, u dont hit your flush in 80,86% till turn, and u fold to his cb.. tot loss: 80,86*22=1778.92

B, u hit your flush in 19,14% till turn, now, in some part of his range he has a redraw for fullh, and ok, at some flush cards he just might give u very little to ntg, or ntg.. certainly with TA (if is in his range).. but anyways> u only have to know that u need> 1778.92:19.14=92.94$ to win to be =ev .. this is just 5.94$ !!! more than the current pot at turn...

so if u are able to make an additional 5.94$ from turn if u hit your flush, i am sure u re! (if he has a set u d become 77:23 favorite so u have to bet accordinly) this is +ev..

conclusion> just calling a raise is far better (bcs its horrbly small) and reshoving is definitely -ev

...just horrible horrible raise from him..

Somebody said once that pokerstrategists tend to play flush draws way too aggressively.

Originally posted by TheLastNail
1, it s definitely not profitable to reshove at flop:

216.8: (216.8x2+65deadmon) = u need 43.5% equity

his shoving range: TT,99,66, T9, 78, vs this u are 32,6:67,4% underdog (equilator) , with your rr u get TA to fold (probably only hand he can raise there vs which u have fold eq, which is clearly not enough to make up for big 10,9% discrepancy

2, if u play with odds:

his raise is AWFUL! to say the least.. u have just 22$ to call for a 87$ pot on turn!!!

A, u dont hit your flush in 80,86% till turn, and u fold to his cb.. tot loss: 80,86*22=1778.92

B, u hit your flush in 19,14% till turn, now, in some part of his range he has a redraw for fullh, and ok, at some flush cards he just might give u very little to ntg, or ntg.. certainly with TA (if is in his range).. but anyways> u only have to know that u need> 1778.92:19.14=92.94$ to win to be =ev .. this is just 5.94$ !!! more than the current pot at turn...

so if u are able to make an additional 5.94$ from turn if u hit your flush, i am sure u re! (if he has a set u d become 77:23 favorite so u have to bet accordinly) this is +ev..

conclusion> just calling a raise is far better (bcs its horrbly small) and reshoving is definitely -ev

...just horrible horrible raise from him..

i like this analysis. in a fr scenario vs a tight post flop player u have to call this small raise imo although it sucks oop cuz u have to play c/f turn ui.

vs aggr. post flop player i always bet/3bet flop because their ranges are wide enough (airballs, weak pairs that fold to a 3bet, strong draws that we are often flipping against (pair+ sd, pair + fd) and monsters) and we cant really play turn and river profitably oop.

edit: i also like c/r flop a lot to balance our c/f on such coordinated wet flops where we often c/f as pfa. also we get a bet out of weak holdings that have to fold vs a c/r.

regarding his raise size: if he was an aggr. post flop player, he might raise that small to balance his small bluffs. and since we cant play almost any hand profitably oop vs this raise, the size might not be too bad vs our range. but since he doesnt raise too many flops, he should just raise his value hands bigger, especially on such a wet board.

Originally posted by TheLastNail
1, it s definitely not profitable to reshove at flop:

216.8: (216.8x2+65deadmon) = u need 43.5% equity

his shoving range: TT,99,66, T9, 78, vs this u are 32,6:67,4% underdog (equilator) , with your rr u get TA to fold (probably only hand he can raise there vs which u have fold eq, which is clearly not enough to make up for big 10,9% discrepancy

2, if u play with odds:

his raise is AWFUL! to say the least.. u have just 22$ to call for a 87$ pot on turn!!!

A, u dont hit your flush in 80,86% till turn, and u fold to his cb.. tot loss: 80,86*22=1778.92

B, u hit your flush in 19,14% till turn, now, in some part of his range he has a redraw for fullh, and ok, at some flush cards he just might give u very little to ntg, or ntg.. certainly with TA (if is in his range).. but anyways> u only have to know that u need> 1778.92:19.14=92.94$ to win to be =ev .. this is just 5.94$ !!! more than the current pot at turn...

so if u are able to make an additional 5.94$ from turn if u hit your flush, i am sure u re! (if he has a set u d become 77:23 favorite so u have to bet accordinly) this is +ev..

conclusion> just calling a raise is far better (bcs its horrbly small) and reshoving is definitely -ev

...just horrible horrible raise from him..

very nice analysis. I agrre with that. If he would be looser postflop (like me ^^) a reraise would be profitable. Against this guy calling is better however.

Best regards,
TribunCaesar