78o ~ 3bet pot, trainwreck river

The 3bet pre is quite wild but you probably know that. I guess you did 3bet because of his high fold to 3bet over a decent sample?

Okay now that we tried to exploit his high fold to 3bet and failed, what does it mean? The guy is quite tight to begin with and he folds tons vs 3bets. In my experience people fold vs 3bets more on late positions where they open wider and less in early where they open tight. So if this 78% is his overall fold to 3bet he could be folding even more on BTN. Let's say he opens about 30% on BTN pre (400 combos). That is not much but for a 20/15 guy could be reasonable. Then he could be folding 80% vs 3bets so he calls with only 80 combos. Could look something like this: QQ-99, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ or maybe take away some AK and add other hands. But anyway, the point is that when this guy calls pre he has a tight range that has pocket pairs and those Jx. Does it make sense to continue betting OTF? And when we get OTR, does he really have QJ hands or AJo there?

He could potentially have JQs.
I don't think checking is a good option, giving free equity to his overcards. x/f seems too weak?

I wouldn't say x/f is too weak if we assume he calls pre so tight that he destroys us here. What range would you give him after he calls your 3bet? You did 3bet this hand because he folds awfully too much and he seems to be tight opener also.

I suppose, just what about the equity we give away when we x and he has overcards? and what about the turns when we bink 2 pair/trips, could this be factored in to make this potentially a +EV flop bet?

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Jd4s7s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 54.91% 54.91% 0.00% { QQ-99, AQs-AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, AJo+ }
MP3 45.09% 45.09% 0.00% { 8s7c }

I put him on some sort of a range.
In my population analysis it looks like an average BTN opening range would be about 37%. This guy seems tight so I think we can give him 30% opening range, ok? Then it also looks like that an average fold to 3bet is higher on BTN and SB than on earlier positions. That is probably because of wider opening ranges that are not defended properly. So if this guy folds 78% overall, let's say he folds 80% here. Now he has 80 combos in his range. I took away KK+,AKs because those are reasonable 4bets for a tight guy like this.

OTF villain has a huge equity advantage. He also has position advantage.
60% of villain's range are pocket pairs or Jx hands. The rest of the hands are 2 overcards and some of those have flush draws, some could have bdgs and bdfd to go with the 2 overcards. I guess he is not going to fold much vs a cbet that is under 50% of the pot? Then we have to play the turn. You have 5 outs to improve, what do we do?

I can see your point but I think playing this weak hand OOP vs a guy who has a strong range is difficult. Your 5 outs only means you will hit OTT about 10% of the time. How this would have played out if you wouldn't have hit?

I agree with you and the breakdown.
Obviously itd be a x/f on turn if not improved. I didn't consider his tight range after calling. Everything makes sense, I was wrong.
Thanks.