PLO50 - AAQ3 ds

I have no default sizing for this situation as utg is usually not open minraising. So I cannot play the 3-bet/pot/pot line on dry boards like this with AAxx. But because of the minraise I would also go ahead and bet exploitative 33%-50%. I would not do this against a more decent player. As you played it, I also would not bet so big ott, you want flushdraws to call, and if he has 2pair+, he will raise making it more expensive to chase with your nfd. So checkcall vs bluffy/aggressive floaters and bet vs peel-flop-and-fold-without-improvement-ott type of players.

Do you really think he will get to the Turn with many two pairs? Also I don't see many bd fd in his range as we block some of them. I personally like to bet bigger on the Turn as we're oop and it's super hard to play oop vs straightening cards. I'm happy to see him fold a lot here and if he pushes the Turn I have an easy decision because I comitted myself. And getting Kx with a gutshot to fold on the Turn is a decent result imo. Also like I said Villain is unknown so it's hard to play the best possible way. Also I would never consider him a decent player. I don't think any good player uses a UTG minraise strategy. The more I think about this spot the more im convinced potting is best play. I think IP you can get away with a lower sizing but oop just sucks so much. Hmm..

Hm, not as often as when the turn card would be like a Q, J or T. But there are some K8/K6 combos from hands like AK87ss or KQ65ds. Assuming he is a more loose player because he minraised. It is also hard to say how many midpairs 66 and 88, like T887 or 9766 that would give him set he is minraise-flatcallin, but I could also imagine him having some of those hands.

Ye a bet-fold would be really bad ott. I would appreciate to hear some more opinions, the thing is, you cannot balance that huge sizing with bluffs anymore. People are over-sophisticated when it comes to big sizings for protection but theoretically, when your ranges are polarized (they should be when you are the aggressor), this is practically impossible to find hands that fit a small bet otf, where you would have more air and bluffs, and than to continue balanced with such a huge sizing on the turn where the bluff/value ratio should still be around 1:1.

You basically say: "I am never bluffing here, I just dont want you to call because when I get to the river and I dont have the Nutflush, I would have no Idea what to do if I miss and you would use your position to outplay me." When he would have drawouts and/or possible outs to a twopair, he could play accordingly and also have a balanced raising range where he semi-bluffraises to balance sets and 2pairs he already would raise ott.

You are repping AA as the pf 3bettor and thats the hand he wants to crack ip. And thats easier for villain to do when
1) you play 3 streets oop and
2) the board becomes dynamic.

I would'nt say I don't have bluffs here. Of course I never have pure bluffs here but I can still easily have a wrap or pair + str8 draw or fd + str8 draw. Especially with no sd value I would play several hands like that. So I wouldn't say im top range here all the time.

Compared to the AA-portion, the portion of really strong draws like fd+sd or wraps is insignificant. To have a wrap for example you would need hands like 975x or T97. Idk how much of those hands you would 3bet preflop. It depends on your 3betting range oop in that instance. But usually I would say you would have more hands like AA/KK/QQ-TTNN and ABBds/ANNNss type of hands

As the board is rainbow and opponent is probably not-so-good in PLO (he minraises preflop) you can bet-fold with half a pot. As a standard I would be slightly bigger or smaller, half a pot is often "I don't know what to do" in other than locked boards.

On the turn you have the best hand almost always (and against 2 pairs you have nice equity) so pot is the right play.