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Max value, protection or pot control with middling flush OTT OOP?

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bigdog63
Joined: 24.10.2011

what is the max EV play here?
Villain (UTG) looks like a weak passive reg 20/10

was a little concerned he might fold to too much agression OTT.
was also concerned about better flushes or FH

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $19.47 (194.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $13.09 (130.9 bb)
UTG: $20.93 (209.3 bb)
MP: $10.70 (107 bb)
CO: $9.10 (91 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8♠: J♠:
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.20) 7♠: T♠: 2♥: (4 players)
SB bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, UTG raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.90) 6♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

River: ($6.10) T♣: (2 players)


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5 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

maybe donk/fold. he checks back a ton, check/raise is overplay, check/call is annoying and check/fold is sick


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

Raise flop. Reraise flop after UTG raises. You are OOP with J high on one of the best boards you can hit with your preflop call. Ready to stack off on the flop. If you make them fold and get the money with J high - even better.

Then, please raise the turn. Sets and A♠:X can call.

River donk/fold would be ok for around 1/2. You can get value from a T or overpair.

Check/call river is bad as he would most likely check behind everything worse and bet with the hands that beat you


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bigdog63
Joined: 24.10.2011

Originally posted by Sunrise1912
You are OOP with J high on one of the best boards you can hit with your preflop call. Ready to stack off on the flop. If you make them fold and get the money with J high - even better.

I guess that is key. Thanks


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Densyosh
Joined: 30.10.2009

Originally posted by bigdog63
what is the max EV play here?

Fold pf..


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GridironAssassin
Joined: 19.12.2014

What is your estimation of the very bottom of his value raising range on this board 4 way facing a donk, a call and with a player to act behind him? With a weak passive reg, I wouldn't expect to see much worse than QQ+ with a spade and the sets (adding or removing 2's doesn't change much, not sure he opens 22 utg).

What is your estimation of his semi bluffing range here? AKss, AQss, KQss and Axss make the most sense.

I kinda like calling flop here. You are a dog to the above ranges but you have massive equity and decent removal (no open ended straight flush draw). I like raising flop better with 98ss since you pick up one more nut card (6s or Js) to go along with your OESD and FD. Keep in mind, you have all of the sets in your BB call range and he is still raising flop so I would assume he is tilted towards value here.

On the turn, the equities shift drastically in your favor (66/33) and you now block his BDNFD's which might choose to barrel. He has a bunch of hands that can/will want to continue vs. a check/raise so I would go for it on the tur

As played, Check/Raise is too thin, Check/Call probably loses value. I would bet/fold something between $2 and $3 on the river. There is still value to possibly be had from QQ+ and the occasional weird T but keep in mind that most everything in his range is going to have you beat.


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