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AQ top pair river decision

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RemiRem
Joined: 27.12.2009

Villain is 12/16/0 in 270 hands. What can i beat here on river? I was thinking here Ax of spades, AK, 99+, in rare cases AJ, A10.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 85.5 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.21, PFR: 10.60, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 220)
UTG: 214.5 BB (VPIP: 16.20, PFR: 12.68, 3Bet Preflop: 1.02, Hands: 287)
UTG+1: 108 BB (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 7.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 147)
MP: 136.5 BB (VPIP: 20.93, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 43)
MP+1: 74.5 BB (VPIP: 25.60, PFR: 19.32, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 209)
MP+2: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 12.27, PFR: 6.32, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 271)
CO: 150.5 BB (VPIP: 16.15, PFR: 13.54, 3Bet Preflop: 2.74, Hands: 193)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ A♣

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 11 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 8 BB

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 9♠ 6♣ 3♠
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 15 BB, MP+2 calls 15 BB

Turn: (54.5 BB, 2 players) A♦
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 35 BB, MP+2 calls 35 BB

River: (124.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠
MP+2 bets 47.5 BB and is all-in, Hero ?


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5 replies
zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I'm probably folding just because he seems really nitty.
You're getting a good price, but this type of move from a player like this is normally for value.
He's not doing it with TP imo.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I call preflop, because he looks like a nit - we don´t wanna 3b into tight ranges much. That being said, OTF we are vs super tight range, no point in betting there as a bluff imo. OTT I´d x or bet smaller, this seems like valueown. R is fold for sure, this is gonna be 2p+ 99% of the time.


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Sunrise1912
Joined: 24.11.2009

This is Ax with the flush 99% of the time or 99. Fold the river.


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CucumbaMan
Joined: 13.10.2017

Yeah, I agree with you, there isn't much you can beat on the river. Also call-call-shove looks reeeeeeally strong, especially from a nit.:f_drink:


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

not a fan of the betsizings. river call almost never wins, of course


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