K10s pre and post flop play

OTF I believe the check-call is completely fine. Your hand is so strong.
Turn is well played. Time to shove and collect it all.
I think there's nothing to be said, the hand was well played, variance just decided to hit you. You are a 75% favorite on that turn.

I agree with the above poster you played the hand as well as you could.Your going to lose stacks from time to time even when you play the hand well.You shouldn't be in any doubt that this is +ev long term though.

This seems fine I think. Raising the flop would be to much.
Than you get only action of sets and the A♠:

Cheers,
SDK1987

And of course i lost, when i had got 80% ore more win chance...

Originally posted by ToddBrunson
And of course i lost, when i had got 80% ore more win chance...

You had 75% chance to win --> 25% chance to lose.
Roll a dice and see how often you will get for example number 1. You losing this hand is more likely than you getting that specific number when rolling a dice.
This kind of things will happen, it is part of the game. If this makes you tilt and makes you lose money in the next hands, it is a problem that should be fixed

la55i, if you believe or not i lost this situation about 50% and more than 100K hand, maybe 1 million. So i can not very happy. But you right i should be fixed. But sometimes this happen one session about 2 hours 4-5 times, it is really disqusting and i lose my faith.

Probabaly if i was villain i let AJ, lot of flush and two possible set here. He had not got any odds the call and raise overplay, he mistake and he won.

Originally posted by ToddBrunson
la55i, if you believe or not i lost this situation about 50% and more than 100K hand, maybe 1 million.

I saw a graph of a player here on the forum that had over 1 million hands and the yellow line (all-in EV) was above the green line for something like 150 buy-ins...
That's variance at alien-level.

Yea sometimes we run below EV for a long time. We just must try to live with that and focus on playing.

We can look at this hand from villain's perspective:

AJo, quite standard open pre-flop.
OTF he has TPTK and nut FD and he cbets, it is ok.
OTT he improves to top 2 pair and nut FD and cbets so that looks ok too.

Now when you raise OTT, with what hands would you do that? Turn raises are very often strong at the micros. Would you raise many sets when the board already has a flush possible? Let's use the worst case scenario --> you have the best hand you can have here = K high flush, just like you do. With a nut flush draw + 4 outs to a full house, villain has 25% equity against you. To call this raise profitably he needs 28% equity. So he almost gets the direct odds to call even though you would only raise with made flushes. Then when we add just some bluffs to your raising range, villain already gets direct odds to call. Even if he wouldn't have direct odds, he would have enough implied odds to make the call.

Now still I think that shove might have been a bit overplay, he is not in that good situation. If we give you somewhat realistic range I think he could have around 27% equity when you call his shove. It means you would need to have enough bluffs so you would fold 40% of the time against that shove. Then it would be +EV.

So while I agree that the raise might have been an overplay, I think he definitely should call your raise.

Originally posted by la55i
Yea sometimes we run below EV for a long time. We just must try to live with that and focus on playing.

We can look at this hand from villain's perspective:

AJo, quite standard open pre-flop.
OTF he has TPTK and nut FD and he cbets, it is ok.
OTT he improves to top 2 pair and nut FD and cbets so that looks ok too.

Now when you raise OTT, with what hands would you do that? Turn raises are very often strong at the micros. Would you raise many sets when the board already has a flush possible? Let's use the worst case scenario --> you have the best hand you can have here = K high flush, just like you do. With a nut flush draw + 4 outs to a full house, villain has 25% equity against you. To call this raise profitably he needs 28% equity. So he almost gets the direct odds to call even though you would only raise with made flushes. Then when we add just some bluffs to your raising range, villain already gets direct odds to call. Even if he wouldn't have direct odds, he would have enough implied odds to make the call.

Now still I think that shove might have been a bit overplay, he is not in that good situation. If we give you somewhat realistic range I think he could have around 27% equity when you call his shove. It means you would need to have enough bluffs so you would fold 40% of the time against that shove. Then it would be +EV.

So while I agree that the raise might have been an overplay, I think he definitely should call your raise.

Great explanation la55i.
This hand is a hand where none of the players makes a wrong decision. Both hero and villain play this hand correctly. Still, one of them has to lose

Originally posted by zetozinho

Originally posted by ToddBrunson
la55i, if you believe or not i lost this situation about 50% and more than 100K hand, maybe 1 million.

I saw a graph of a player here on the forum that had over 1 million hands and the yellow line (all-in EV) was above the green line for something like 150 buy-ins...
That's variance at alien-level.

Yea anything is possible.
I played around with a variance calculator and 100buy-in below the EV line over one million hands would still be within a 70% confidence interval.
I used 4bb/100 winrate and 100bb/100 standard deviation over 1million hands.
So, the result would show that 70% of the time you should be running within 10K bb under or above the EV line. In that perspective 150 stacks in over a million hands playing 6max wouldn't be that alien-level. Things can get even more crazy at PLO so it the graph was from PLO it would be even more normal

Play 100k hands is a complete challenge and you still won't know anything about your true winrate ♦

Only thing i have to work hard to manage tilt and i never sit down and play poker if i tires or hangover or both. More read a books, relax and less drinking.