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QTs overcards flush draw with gutshot vs a turn float

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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

partypoker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 125.2 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 50 BB
Hero (UTG): 116.4 BB
MP: 100.4 BB (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 97.4 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ T♠

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 4♠ 8♣ 9♠
Hero bets 4.6 BB, MP calls 4.6 BB

Turn: (16.6 BB, 2 players) 4♦
Hero checks, MP bets 10.4 BB, Hero calls 10.4 BB

Is check/raise ever a valid line here? Would you ever consider folding?

River: (37.4 BB, 2 players) 2♣
Hero checks, MP bets 23.6 BB, fold


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5 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You have decent amount of equity but you still would need 28% to make a profitable call. You don't have the direct odds, your FD is not to the nuts and the board just paired. If you check the turn I think you should probably be folding vs his bet.

But I would like to play this draw aggressively out of position. Combine that equity with some fold equity.


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

That's a typical turn overbetting spot (blank card after a wet flop on which villain is supposed to raise his nuts). Could be check/raised too I guess but I like it less. And folding is more or less out of the question. 2 OC + FD + GS come on.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well as I said we need 28% to get direct odds.

FD + GS = hit chances roughly 25% so not enough. Sure we could think we have a bit more equity than that because we have those overcards too, but if we hit a T or Q how often it takes us ahead really? We could also think we have some implied odds, but as I said our FD is not to the nuts and the board just paired. We could end up losing a lot even if we hit, so I wouldn't count much implieds in this situation.

Okay because villain probably would raise sets OTF we shouldn't be that worried about the board pairing. But this might not "2oc fd gs come on" clear.


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

check/calling is rather underwhelming, no doubt. the more i look at it, the more i like check/raising... and jam river, of course. the main issue is that villain might be a calling station, also some villains will still have sets (fulls).
when in doubt, just continue cbetting, i guess.


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shooshte
Joined: 23.08.2018

Now that I think about it more, maybe just c-betting something like 50% of the pot OTT would be the best option. We should have enough fold equity to make it profitable...


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