My first plan is to get to a $2,500 bankroll balance so I will have 10,000 bets in hand at the 25c limits and then move up! 
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Day 1 Session 1 - Video Poker - 3rd April 2019 - $70 profit
Made $70 yesterday at Video Poker. At this rate, it will take me 10 weeks to be at my 2nd target of a $5,000 balance at the 50c limits!
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Here is the highlights:
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Even if video poker is +EV with bonuses (it's certainly -EV without them), why are you sure that casinos won't convict you of bonus abuse and confiscate your funds?
So you found a place where you can play video poker with a profitable strategy?
I thought it would be pretty easy for online casinos to set up the rules and payouts in a way to make sure that the house always has an edge. If that's not the case, it makes me wonder why they offer these games at all.
The secret comes in doubling up your winnings. I only double when I hit trips or better.
I read about bankroll management for video poker. You should have 10,000 bets in hand when playing, although I currently only have 500 bets in hand with a $120 balance playing 25c bets, as that is all I could afford.
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The reason why I'm asking people to follow me on twitch is because I got an email today from twitch stating that from the 10th April only affiliate users can post uploads of their edited broadcasts. Which is a real bummer! So I need 50 followers ASAP!
Originally posted by richierichnz
The secret comes in doubling up your winnings. I only double when I hit trips or better.
This looks like a modified version of the martingale betting system, which sometimes makes its users rich but mostly results in a loss of the bankroll.
Because casinos set finite limits on bet sizes, the optional stopping theorem applies, and if you play -EV games, you'll end up poorer on average, no matter which rule you use to select the moment when you stop betting.
Originally posted by tonypmm
This looks like a modified version of the martingale betting system
The martingale system has obviously been debunked numerous times, but that's not quite what's going on here. Richie didn't refer to doubling up his stakes, but to the optional "double or nothing" mini-game that you can play after winning.
Still, I assume the odds on this game are about 50-50 (though you do seem to have a magic touch in those games shown in the video - then again, those were only the highlights), so I still can't really see how this is supposed to turn the overall odds in your favor, if the game wasn't +EV before that.
Originally posted by Harrier88
The martingale system has obviously been debunked numerous times, but that's not quite what's going on here. Richie didn't refer to doubling up his stakes, but to the optional "double or nothing" mini-game that you can play after winning.
Ah, OK. That mini-game has zero EV. The optional stopping theorem applies to this case too - there's no value to be gained by having any rule for when to play the mini-game. The only way of making a game vs the house +EV is bonus abuse, but the downside (the risk of confiscation) is greater than the upside.
A lot of online casinos expressly prohibit decreasing the stakes when in profit while clearing a bonus. A subtler version of abuse that's not banned explicitly is playing the double-up game when in loss (to increase the probability of busting the bonus early, thus placing fewer bets per bonus on average and paying less juice on average to the casino) and not playing it when in substantial profit, but I guess that casinos' security services can detect such a tendency too and ban the user for it.
yeah you really need 10,000 bets in hand to play at the 25c level that is for sure.
I'll try and fluke some more winnings. I got a $40 bonus and only deposited $10 to start off with.
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Well, as Tony pointed out before, even if you have found some way to make the games profitable, I can't really see the casino letting you get away with it without pulling the plug on you eventually. After all, they're running a business that's pretty much solely dependent on people playing -EV games. Even some sports bookies are known to kick out bettors if they are performing better than they're supposed to.
If you do manage to pull this whole thing off somehow, hats off to you.
Originally posted by Harrier88
Well, as Tony pointed out before, even if you have found some way to make the games profitable, I can't really see the casino letting you get away with it without pulling the plug on you eventually. After all, they're running a business that's pretty much solely dependent on people playing -EV games. Even some sports bookies are known to kick out bettors if they are performing better than they're supposed to.If you do manage to pull this whole thing off somehow, hats off to you.
follow me on my twitch channel www.twitch.tv/richierichnz I will follow you too!
Originally posted by tonypmm
Originally posted by Harrier88
The martingale system has obviously been debunked numerous times, but that's not quite what's going on here. Richie didn't refer to doubling up his stakes, but to the optional "double or nothing" mini-game that you can play after winning.Ah, OK. That mini-game has zero EV. The optional stopping theorem applies to this case too - there's no value to be gained by having any rule for when to play the mini-game. The only way of making a game vs the house +EV is bonus abuse, but the downside (the risk of confiscation) is greater than the upside.
A lot of online casinos expressly prohibit decreasing the stakes when in profit while clearing a bonus. A subtler version of abuse that's not banned explicitly is playing the double-up game when in loss (to increase the probability of busting the bonus early, thus placing fewer bets per bonus on average and paying less juice on average to the casino) and not playing it when in substantial profit, but I guess that casinos' security services can detect such a tendency too and ban the user for it.
follow me on my twitch channel www.twitch.tv/richierichnz I will follow you too!
Originally posted by Harrier88
Well, as Tony pointed out before, even if you have found some way to make the games profitable, I can't really see the casino letting you get away with it without pulling the plug on you eventually.
Well, it's possible to fly under the radar if you play other games, e.g. if you sign up with a poker room, mainly play poker and occasionally use casino bonus offers that the poker room is throwing at you. I did win a few K$ off a couple of poker rooms that way, but the EV of my casino 'adventures' was still less than the poker rake I paid (so I was still a welcomed customer overall), in the hindsight, they were too risky, and I shouldn't have taken casino bonuses.
Going live in a few minutes ladies and gentleman!
Will be playing 3 hours of Video Poker from 7pm - 8.30pm and again from 9pm to 10.30pm NZT.
Feel free to watch along and follow me on my twitch channel!
http://www.twitch.tv/richierichnz
#LetsDoThis
Day 2 Session 1 - $39.50 profit
sorry for the wonky screen - will fix next time
and sorry for the confusing video - i stuffed up ♦
My bankroll progress
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my video poker playing schedule from next week onwards:
"if i can do this, YOU can do this"
Lets do this together
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Day 3 Session 1 - Video Poker - 5th April 2019 - $123.50 profit
Here are the 10 minute highlights!
My bankroll progress so far:
And here is my daily schedule from tomorrow onwards on my twitch channel! www.twitch.tv/richierichnz - follow me today
although I won't be playing much on Sunday - as im going to see the new "Dumbo" movie ♦
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