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Fold TPTK in 3BP when flush hits?

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vaca22
Joined: 24.11.2008

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
MP: $60.46 (241.8 bb)
CO: $9.77 (39.1 bb)
BTN: $22.30 (89.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♣: A♥:
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.10) K♠: 8♦: 3♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($13.10) 9♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $15.80 and is all-in, Hero ??

Villain is a 62/44 fish. He was opening around 60% from BTN and his overall fold to 3 bet was quite low but over a small sample.
Should I be scared of the diamond OTT and fold? He will have lot of flushes in his range when he is calling wide preflop. He can also have K8s, K9s, sets. He could probably play weaker Kx like this but I am not sure it is enough to make it a profitable call.


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18 replies
EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

I prefer check/shoving turn - if he is that loose then he still should have decent amount of air in his range. Recreationals also usually stab too wide.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Not sure I would change my hand in to a bluff on a wet board like this with check/raising. if he has a better hand it's tough to improve. I would most likely Cbet the turn a lot smaller like $5. Now you are committed and even against a aggressive maniac there aren't to many hands you beat here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Turn is a check. Bet/call is terrible.


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

Originally posted by SDK1987
Not sure I would change my hand in to a bluff on a wet board like this with check/raising.

So going all in with top pair top kicker is bluff? Think about exploiting typical tendencies of recreational players, If he has flush so be it, but I can't see myself folding there AK vs 60 vpip fish.


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vaca22
Joined: 24.11.2008

So the plan should be to check and call down?


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vaca22
Joined: 24.11.2008

Originally posted by zetozinho
Turn is a check. Bet/call is terrible.

So the plan should be to check and call down?


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Ihuarraquax
Joined: 13.12.2016

I would fold to that raise OTT. As played it seems ok to me. I have no problem with turn bet. Its like 40%. He still can call some one card diamonds combos etc. With decent history vs that villain maybe call on that shove, but still prefer fold. He maybe can have decent amount hands we beat...but without decent sample. Fold.


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Baracchinghi
Joined: 10.01.2011

The problem here is the flop. You have two option: play in 2 or 3 streets. If you want to play 3 streets, a bet of 1.85$ is your best option. If you want 2 streets, you need to bet bigger on the flop (something like 5).
In any case, betting the turn to fold is not a viable option.

Remember that when you find yourself in spots you don't know what the hell to do, it's because you have planned it badly in the previous streets.


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DeadMensHand
Joined: 31.10.2006

Originally posted by vaca22

Originally posted by zetozinho
Turn is a check. Bet/call is terrible.

So the plan should be to check and call down?

how would u play the hand turn to river or why is bet turn and maybe fold so bad?


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If my math is correct Your getting 3.5/1 on a call with the $6 turn bet when villain shoves $15.80.The pots $34.90 and were only calling $9.80 so we need 22% equity to make a profitable call.And were easily going to be getting that vs this villain so folding isn't really an option.In this sort of spot i prefer going larger on the flop and just shoving any turn.Villains range is going to be very wide for calling off two streets.Where as they cant call the rest off on bricked rivers when they miss everything


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DeadMensHand
Joined: 31.10.2006

Originally posted by Fvendal
If my math is correct Your getting 3.5/1 on a call with the $6 turn bet when villain shoves $15.80.The pots $34.90 and were only calling $9.80 so we need 22% equity to make a profitable call.And were easily going to be getting that vs this villain so folding isn't really an option.In this sort of spot i prefer going larger on the flop and just shoving any turn.Villains range is going to be very wide for calling off two streets.Where as they cant call the rest off on bricked rivers when they miss everything.

Yeah makes sense bet bigger OTT
but I don't get zetozinhos c/c or c/f line.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

As I said, turn is a check when you bet so small OTF. Fvendal is very appealing: bet big flop, shove turn.
Bet/call OTT with this SPR is puting yourself into a tough spot when you really can avoid it.


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DeadMensHand
Joined: 31.10.2006

Originally posted by zetozinho
As I said, turn is a check when you bet so small OTF. Fvendal is very appealing: bet big flop, shove turn.
Bet/call OTT with this SPR is puting yourself into a tough spot when you really can avoid it.

Thx man! i see. But what is ur turn and Riverplay if u check turn and villain bets turn 1/2 -2/3PS and River shoves? c/c c/c on a blank and Kd Ad? an fold river on any other d?


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Originally posted by DeadMensHand

Originally posted by zetozinho
As I said, turn is a check when you bet so small OTF. Fvendal is very appealing: bet big flop, shove turn.
Bet/call OTT with this SPR is puting yourself into a tough spot when you really can avoid it.

Thx man! i see. But what is ur turn and Riverplay if u check turn and villain bets turn 1/2 -2/3PS and River shoves? c/c c/c on a blank and Kd Ad? an fold river on any other d?

Turn SPR is about 1, so if villain bets he's commiting himself to the river. I'm pretty sure you can check/call all the way against regulars. They should bluff on flushy turns and continue. And they should bluff wider because you have shown weakness.
Given the pop tendencies it will be value heavy at NL100- for sure.
When you double barrel and he shoves it will be way less bluffy for obvious reasons. With this SPR he doesnt really have fold equity so he has no incentive to raise OTT as a bluff. Your perceived range is strong (you have all the sets and strongest flushes), so he will raise hands that beat some of your value range.
That's why bet/call is the worst line you can take here.


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vaca22
Joined: 24.11.2008

So to make some conclusion. From what I understood from the discussion we have to decide OTF if we want to play the hand 2 or 3 streets.

2 street plan - The plan is to bet big OTF and jam the turn.
3 street plan - We start by betting small - we check the turn on a diamond with a plan to call down which should be profitable on lowstakes.

Do I understand it correctly?
Thanks everybody for the discussion!


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Hackett77
Joined: 02.02.2009

Bet fold is fine so is check call, checking slightly higher ev. Ran sim in PIO, on turn PIO mostly check calls non Ac Kc combos then mostly folds river (75%), When PIO does bet AK(no club) on turn (25%) then it is always folding vs raise.

(overall turn strategy is 70% check, mixed bets with 1/3 preferred)

Actually PIO check folds most Ax on flush card turns including AQ and AK some %

I'm surprised how many people still think in 2019 that you always have to go the distance in 3b pots with top pair. Sure if you think villain/pool overbluffs but the vast majority of players don't bluff as adequately as PIO (usually way under or way over)


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

@Hacket77
Yes, you are right - that strategy is sound but.... against regular player. In hand we are against fish who is likely playing more than half of deck. So he will have abundance of naked Kx and flushdraws on turn. I do think we are unhappy to see diamond on turn but against that wide range we can't call turn and fold majority of rivers.


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DeadMensHand
Joined: 31.10.2006

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
@Hacket77
Yes, you are right - that strategy is sound but.... against regular player. In hand we are against fish likely is playing more than half of deck. So he will very likely have abundance of Kx and flushdraws on turn. I do think we are unhappy to see diamond on turn but against that wide range we can't call flop and fold majority of rivers.

Yeah vs Reg player I am also with Hacket77. But like EmiyaKiritsugu says the key is we are against a wide fishy range. we don't can exploit this range better then playing GTO like pio or snowie advises


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