89s | TP + FD OTF

Should be ok calling it off vs over pairs were a 56% favourite and even if you add all the set combos were still a 52% favourite.

Villain can hold nutted flush draws in his range,AKss AQss I would think along with sets and overpairs HOWEVER this villain seems kind of tight. The problem is this villain seems tight and even though with ranges we generally do not want to put villain on one specific hand. when villain is playing nitty we can lean more towards him having a set in this scenario, REDS has given you your equity versus overpairs separately and sets and overpairs combined but he hasnt given you your equity versus only sets which is 40%, you need 45% to call here. When villains play tight sometimes we can give them the benefit of the doubt and make a good fold. Even against overpairs and sets combined it is close to a coinflip for your entire stack in a pot where you have only put a small amount in thus far.

Were never in bad shape and were often ahead,the worst case scenario is 40% but villains range never contains only sets.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Were never in bad shape and were often ahead,the worst case scenario is 40% but villains range never contains only sets.

When they play very tight and do this it is very likely they have a set ,you can sometimes assume this type of thing against nits and tight players. you can make exploitable folds, but if you have only focused on GTO you will have a hard time picking up on exploits and lose money in these situations. Is villain really shoving his stack in with an overpair on the flop with those stats? I think not. It’s not about being in bad shape it’s about coin flipping your stack off , not needed in these situations

If you think your often ahead in this situation you have a lot to learn

Also Heros Equity versus this range consisting of sets and nut flushes :

88-77,55,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,AsTs,As8s,As7s

hero has 48% Equity

idk if we can put villain on a single over-pair when he jams the pot on this board, the only time when we are ahead is when we give villain overpairs in his jamming range and I still think I would fold to a coinflip in a pot I have invested next to nothing without good enough reads.

So by your own calculations its a +ev call
.48 x 248.5 - 112 = +7.28

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
So by your own calculations its a +ev call
.48 x 248.5 - 112 = +7.28

Those are not my calculations LOL, I said thats Hero's Equity versus those ranges., I already said what I think ,we can fold because villain is likely to holds sets since he's playing tight. but that is a good formula nice.

Originally posted by killacasey

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
So by your own calculations its a +ev call
.48 x 248.5 - 112 = +7.28

Those are not my calculations LOL, I said thats Hero's Equity versus those ranges., I already said what I think ,we can fold because villain is likely to holds sets since he's playing tight.

So we can use that equity and the pot odds and see it's a +ev call with the range you assigned villain.And we have to disregard the stats somewhat and adjust our thinking given the info op provided it's possible villain is even on tilt.

"but this session specifically he was playing very very aggressively"

its not +EV if we put villain on sets given his player type. I didn't assign villain anything but probrable sets, the rest was brainstorming. Why would we disregard important data on all villains previous hands played with us and instead only think about the fact OP said he was playing very aggressively ? I mean what does that quote really mean? did play aggressively 1 or 2 hands in a row and go all-in with the nuts and Hero thought he was just being aggro? Numbers don't lie especially when we have a solid amount of hands on someone but quotes can be misleading.

So your assigning villain only sets ? and you cant disregard notes they are very important.

Don't fold, worst case scenario, we are up against a set, small mistake.

Best case scenario opponent shows AhAc & the 2 players behind call with sets. Huge win.

Or opponent shows A6ss, made a mistake with JdJh w/e...

I mean it is still just $2, there has to be some random spew / mistakes, and you don't need much to make this a good spot. Unless he shows a set, I'm calling.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
So your assigning villain only sets ?

you can give him AKss,AQss and sets and we are still -ev

Your entilted to your opinion dude, think whatever you want. I just think when your on a micro's forum and your commenting on someones thread wording what you say without the words like, " I think", "I speculate", He could have", and instead make your statements seem like a stone cold fact when it is actually very debatable that it can hurt new-comers who take your information as fact. By no means are you "often ahead" when villain turns over his hand, theres a chance yes but its not a sure thing and player type is very important when making these assumptions.

Originally posted by killacasey

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
So your assigning villain only sets ?

you can give him AKss,AQss and sets and we are still -ev

Your entilted to your opinion dude, think whatever you want. I just think when your on a micro's forum and your commenting on someones thread wording what you say without the words like, " I think", "I speculate", He could have", and instead make your statements seem like a stone cold fact when it is actually very debatable that it can hurt new-comers who take your information as fact. By no means are you "often ahead" when villain turns over his hand, theres a chance yes but its not a sure thing and player type is very important when making these assumptions.

Check my op
"Should be ok calling it off" not will be, and if the worst case scenario is 40% equity then us never being in bad shape is a fact.

You can give villain AA,QQ,KK all pairs that contain a spade, some nut flushes and sets and still only have 49.65% Equity, thats not being ahead. Also there are two players left to act that can have a set and call behind you.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Were never in bad shape and were often ahead,the worst case scenario is 40% but villains range never contains only sets.

this quote? we are "often ahead"?

Your only looking at your equity you have to take the pot odds in to consideration.

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Your only looking at your equity you have to take the pot odds in to consideration.

No I am looking at the whole picture, if you hold under 45% equity its - EV, I know if we have 49% it can be +EV but that doesnt mean you telling OP we are" often ahead" is correct.

Originally posted by killacasey

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
Were never in bad shape and were often ahead,the worst case scenario is 40% but villains range never contains only sets.

this quote? we are "often ahead"?

Were only behind to sets and the straight so we are often ahead.Do you think villain can have over pairs and some pair+draws even some bare draws ?