My 30% profit a month strategy

30.04.2020, 20:50 +1

Hi everyone,

New member here in peace - diving straight into this post so apologies if it's in the wrong place.

I've played NL cash on and off for around 9 years, online and in casinos, and I'm sure like many I've got back into it recently. I'd say I'm an intermediate player.

I've set myself the below challenge for the next 12 months, and am pretty determined to stick to it. I'm sure no one is interested in following my progress for a whole year, but I would love any feedback on the strategy:

Deposit £50 a month
Aim for 30% profit a month

By my maths, over 12 months I would deposit £600, and if I hit exactly 30% profit a month it'd look like:

1. 50 > 65
2. 115 > 150 (65 + 50 = 115 x 1.3 = 150)
3. 200 > 259 (150 + 50 = 200 x 1.3 = 259)
4. 309 > 402 (etc.)
5. 452 > 588
6. 638 > 829
7. 879 > 1143
8. 1193 > 1551
9. 1601 > 2081
10. 2131 > 2770
11. 2820 > 3666
12. 3716 > 4831

So, my final profit would be 4831 - 600 = 4231.

Next, I want to aim for around £12.50 profit per hour [on average], so I worked out I can play for around 6.5 hours a week (4231 / 12.50 = 340 hours / 52 = 6.5). I'm sure I'll go over that at times, either because I have to or I have free time, but I'm still working full time in the UK lockdown.

Last, my rule is to have no more than 5-10% of my bankroll at the table at any one time.

So, I'll be playing 0.02/0.05 for the first month and slowly working my way up.

I'll be most likely sticking to 6 handed cash games, online, PokerStars (ID is StevieH17).

I'm sure I'm not the first to try a strategy like this and have probably subconsciously stole it from something I read or watched in previous years, but would be great to get any feedback, especially from anyone who's tried something like it.

I've kicked off month 1 (May) on Tuesday, and my current balance is £75, so above my target already but still a whole month to go.

I guess I'm thinking I'll exceed 30% for the first few months at micro-stakes, then it'll become more difficult...!

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3 replies

CheesyEagle

Joined: 10.03.2013

Posts: 40

30.04.2020, 21:30 +1

Hey mate :f_drink:

Interesting calculations, but I'm afraid it's completely unrealistic. It simply doesn't work like this in poker.

1) Poker is a game of high variance. Instead of steadily climbing up, your graph is gonna go up and down like crazy.
2) You'd need to improve drastically to be able to fulfil your expectations. According to your calculations, in 12th month, you would need to make $1100 while playing only 26 hours. It basically means more than $40/hour. Even a winning NL100 reg might not be able to make this much money.

You'll see yourself. It might be better to choose a plan that is more realistic and not that much result oriented.
Anyway, I wish you to prove me wrong! Good luck :f_thumbsup:

"One day, I'll become a professional poker player"

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_Anonymous_

30.04.2020, 21:44 0

Hey. Thanks.

I'm sure it's super idealistic, and I suppose I'm basing it more on my confidence and performance at the lower stakes which I'm more experienced in (so the first few months aim).

I clearly hadn't thought further ahead than that in terms of your second point, so a bit of a facepalm there!

I guess part of me just wanted to get something down on paper that I could try and hold myself accountable to, and keep some discipline (for once!)

Anyway, so far so good! :f_grin: