[Closed] 70$ Sat. to Monthly Millon - Missed AQ vs LAG

hmmm I think that it's a push with those reads , he will be defending and donkbetting with broadways and pocket pairs. not equilated it yet but it could be +EV with the fold equity and with hero's gutshot. however I think a LAG would 3bet you with good pairs and AJ+ at least.

--- written after trying to calculate ev

so my guess is that he sees the flop with someting like this : 77-22, ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo-A5o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (19%)

I guess he is probably calling the push with top pair, and pocket pairs from 22-77 , maybe some random A+2overcards so I think something like this : 77-22, AT, A5s, 65s, 54s, A5o (5%) , then you have 33% equity

chipEv = 0,74*3000 + 0,26*0,33*11000 - 0,26*0,66*11000
= 2220+943.0-1187
= 1976

I don't know how icm affects this calculation but it shouldn't make it -ev that far away from the payouts.

yes i think against a very lag player a push here should be +ev in the long run.
but you will bust out many times too.
so it really depends hard on the reads you have.

if you fold you have 15 BB left so your situation is not hopeless.

if you call and win you will be in a very good position to go for the money places.

not an easy decission because i dont think he will fold that often. he gets 2:1 on his call so if he has anything at all or a draw + his "overcards" he will call you.
so 70% chance for his bet/fold might be a bit too big.

but still i think my "10" clear outs might be good enough for me here too.

so against that lag players push it.