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PLO25 AJ44ss donk bet river?

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Active CO open and I defend BB. Flop mid set, gutshot and bd fd but villain pots. So I think call is only option.

Get fd on turn and villain barrel close to pot size. Have to call with set and nut fd.

River give me nuts and now question is if donk bet or x-r has better EV. If diamond draw completed or if board paired I would donk bet usually. Not bad spot to bluff with Jd blocker in case diamonds get in imo. But not sure when its bd fd. I think villain range after betting big flop and turn are pretty much straight or busted fd with some straight blockers. If villain has weaker flush on river I think he mainly bets anyway. Also I thought that 7 or 8 high straight could value bet river versus weaker straights. Some A3 or 63 (unlikely combo I suppose) probably check and could call versus donk bet.

I think x-r plan is fine at least if we assume villain to value bet 7 high or better straight and possibly bluffing some busted draws. If he value bets mainly just flushes though then that sound bad option. So any opinions?


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tranceactor
Joined: 09.11.2006

I would donk river here against most opponents as he has so many bottom straights that he might not bet anymore as there is almost nothing he gets value from in your range. But he probably still calls it as you have a ton of missed draws perceived that you bet here. Well, you don't really want to bluff here but he doesn't know that


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Most opponents would check straights there, so the question is does he have more straights or bluffs in his range. Pot, pot indicates more value heavy range in my opinion so donking is by far the best option. He will not fold a straight.


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