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Zoom AQ exploitative fold or weakness?

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Washdogg
Joined: 12.05.2008

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $7.20 (144 bb)
BB: $8.09 (161.8 bb)
UTG: $4.72 (94.4 bb)
MP: $11.91 (238.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $8.46 (169.2 bb)
BTN: $5.98 (119.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A♣: Q♦:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, BTN calls $0.12, SB raises to $0.75, BB folds, Hero calls $0.63, BTN calls $0.63

Flop: ($2.30) 8♦: A♥: 3♣: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BTN folds, SB calls $0.90

Turn: ($4.10) 2♦: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.10) K♠: (2 players)
SB bets $5.55, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$4.10 pot ($0.17 rake)
Final Board: 8♦: A♥: 3♣: 2♦: K♠:
SB mucked and won $3.93 ($2.28 net)
Hero mucked A♣: Q♦: and lost (-$1.65 net)

Squeezing from SB, villain is on a reasonably tight range. Checking into 2 players and then calling on a dry A high board seems a bit trappy. I think AT-AK and TT+ are all still in his range. The river shove is pretty gross because we can narrow his range to AK,AA and KK. I kept trying to find any of his range that would bluff this spot, and while I think that there's definitely a small percentage of time he'll turn over TT-QQ, I don't think that's happening the ~30% he's jamming this river.

I think after posting this hand and thinking about it, I'm more confident that folding here is correct. But I wanted to share and hear what others have to say.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

If villain is really tight a fold pre-flop isn't to bad ether.
As played the flop bet is pretty standard for value. i don't think villain would check/call hands like TT-KK on the flop. You aren't betting in 2 villains with less than top pair on a dry board like this.

Turn is check back fine. Only a weaker ace could be in villains range that you beat and it will be tough to get value of this. River is a fold tine. Off course your hand is basicly face up now, but tough to believe villain would play QQ like this and that's the only hand you can beat except AJ maybe.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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KoningAlbert
Joined: 09.06.2009

. Sorry misread the hand , so I had to delete my reply :)


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

as you surely are aware, folding this means that you're folding your entire range. you're saying that villain is never bluffing or valuebetting worse.
is that a valid assumption? i'm also struggling to see what you beat against villain's sizing after a check/call on the flop, to be honest - it's "polarized", but i don't see what's the bluff part of the range is for normal micro reg.


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Washdogg
Joined: 12.05.2008

Originally posted by SDK1987
If villain is really tight a fold pre-flop isn't to bad ether.
As played the flop bet is pretty standard for value. i don't think villain would check/call hands like TT-KK on the flop. You aren't betting in 2 villains with less than top pair on a dry board like this.

Turn is check back fine. Only a weaker ace could be in villains range that you beat and it will be tough to get value of this. River is a fold tine. Off course your hand is basicly face up now, but tough to believe villain would play QQ like this and that's the only hand you can beat except AJ maybe.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Yeah, I thought about folding to the 3bet, but I do think that IP w/ AQ vs a SB 3bet is still slightly ahead. Was def close in my mind though. As for the flop check/call, obviously I'm not bluffing ever in this spot, but I don't think it's that uncommon for players at this stake to call once with TT-KK. That being said, I don't think they check/call flop and jam the river. Good to see I'm not alone folding TPTK here lol. Thanks for the feedback!

Originally posted by Tomaloc
as you surely are aware, folding this means that you're folding your entire range. you're saying that villain is never bluffing or valuebetting worse.
is that a valid assumption? i'm also struggling to see what you beat against villain's sizing after a check/call on the flop, to be honest - it's "polarized", but i don't see what's the bluff part of the range is for normal micro reg.

Well I'm not folding my entire range, AK, 88, KK and AA are still in my range lol. But yeah, generally I agree that villain probably doesn't have many bluffs here. Imo he bluffs this spot maybe 1 or 2 times in 100. Again, good to see I'm not alone on the fold here. Thanks for the reply!


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

you're calling AA KK pre and checking 88 on the turn? seems a bit too fancy to me.


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