[Closed] Hand of the Day - Part X

hmmm, maybe betting the flop may work to get a raise so we can 3-bet.

altought the K is very unlikly (I guess he had aces and overplayed them) i like it i guess? ^^

if you try to check-raise the flop you need to donk the turn. very often they start raising with AA here (trying to trap you) so the 3-bet is ok. the cap isnt that nice (he could have KJ, KG, QT which beats us very hard ^^)
The river is nice. so leading out to prevent a check-behind if he capped for free sd is ok.
after he is raising again he's either very strong or is overplaying his cards badly.

stats would be nice and the limit (5/10 is very aggressive i guess)

hands you beat (which are possible for the way he played): AT, AK, AA (until the river), QQ, JJ, KT, K9 (maybe some lower Kx suited if hes a PS.de TAG or knows how to steal ^^)

hands you lose: KQ, KJ.

Its not easy if we can 3-bet the river. If he is very aggressive maybe (AT, AK, JJ, QQ, any K) but if hes passiv i guess its better to call. (I often saw passiv fishes checking the flop behind with monsters to get at least one turn bet)

Ok the decisive point in this hand is once again the turn. This hand is very interesting because a lot of new players will propably overplay this hand like it happend here. What brings us to the solution that a 3bet here is the wrong move.

Important: Your alarm bell should ring as soon as the preflop aggressor checks behind on the flop.

But we definetly have to bet the turn here we don't want to give away another freecard. It can also be that he just wants to call down or something like that and avoid a check raise, but more unlikely.

Important: Your alarm bell shoul howl when you get raised on the turn after this suspicious check behind.

With this betting sequence our trips are not worth a lot here most of the time.

Hands that will beat us here KJ KQ AT,AK JJ QQ K8-KT also T9.

Also i would like to use this hand to introduce you a rule that is not well known yet.

It is the 66% rule. We implement that when we 3bet we gain +1BB but we loose -2bb against a cap because we take it that we are behind everytime we get a cap. So for a 3bet we have to be up front at least 66% of the time and this number is not given here.

As you can see the hands that beat us here are more then %50 of possible hands he plays like this.

So we are behind against more then 50% and we can only call villains turn raise here.

This hand was played on 2/4 and it is definetly overplayed.

The turn is quite clear to me now that you pointed out how it should have been played. The river is a little different in my oppinion though.

We hit our house and now only two hands will beat us: KQ and KJ

Why don't we throw in a 3-bet here? - i'm quite sure i would have done that if i had been in the situation..

He would most likely reraise us with all the mentioned hands (all that had us beaten on the river), which were 10 hands (maybe only 7 if we subtract K8-KT, which isn't a reraise from him always). 2 of them got us beaten = we would win 0,7-0,8 BB by betting here.. or am i completely wrong?

Perhpas you can find the solution by yourself. First of all it is close between

check/call and bet/call

So first of all, don't forget the check behind on the flop. This is very essential so hands like AT or T9 are not so likely. Instead i put him here on QQ/JJ or KQ/KJ.

So the problem like before occurs now. When we bet here it could be that he won't raise with QQ or JJ. But he will definetly re-raise with KQ and KJ. So we will loose -2BB when we are behind but we will win perhaps on avarage only +1.8BB. So on avarage i check/call is the better decision although its close.

Best regards,
Stefan