[Closed] NL 100 SH - should I bluff bet the river?

I think its an easy raise/call push on the flop, 2 overcards+nut flush draw=nuts against him.

I know that standard flop raise/call shove but in this kind of situation against such a player I think that I would be a slight underdog or big underdog if he calls my raise or shove first and any big action is not worth of it just to win his 4 dollars donkbet, as I said his AF is soo low as wel as his wtsd. Anyway flop play with nut FD is easy but I am interested more about river play....

I still raise flop. His donkbet is small. If you're really so sure he's milkin a set, then it doesn't make any sense whatsoever to call the turn, since you're drawing out. However, as I always tell people who "put someone on a set", they don't have it 100% of the time. I'd say he can bet any 22+ or FD on this flop.
I don't see what's interesting about the river. You got ace high, r u really gonna call or raise here? Then your line doesn't make any sense imo.

I made a mistake by not raising the flop OK. It doesn´t look as good as it probably actually was that time. His play looked like a set on a flop becouse I think 1 AF passive fish is not donkbetting air or 22 as you have said. But later on the streets as I was getting more and more information I have re-evaluate his possible range and I think that most of 50 procent of the time he has pp higher than a 66 and lower than a qq so I was thinking if it would make any sense to bluff the river in order to get him out of the pot becouse his wtsd is really smal and if he has what I think he probably has, than he is folding frequently to justify that bluff. He is fish he doesn´t see that representing that K is very unusual line by me he just see his card which doesn´t like that K (usually) and big bet and he migh fold. If that doesn´t make any sense than sorry for such a stupid post .

flop he bets -> set
turn he bets again -> any pp.

Could you explain this logic plz? I don't get it. Why would he have a set like, always, on the flop, then on the turn he suddenly has a much wider range. Sorry, but I don't see why that makes sense. If he really only bets with a set here, fold the turn. But as said, I don't think that is true, hence you raise the flop. It's quite simple imo. River bluff vs fish. I dunno. He has to be capable of folding, I wouldn't risk it here.

I don´t see him betting with the nuts on the river for 1/3 of the pot probably. It looked like a blockbet for me even that he probably have no clue what it really is.

Originally posted by NymXXL
I don´t see him betting with the nuts on the river for 1/3 of the pot probably. It looked like a blockbet for me even that he probably have no clue what it really is.

that's the river, but you called turn, while putting him on a handrange you're drawing out against. That I don't understand.

I didn´t raise the flop becouse he bet so small and if I raise him or call shove it means basically 3 things against 1AF and 18 wtsd: a) he had set and I have 7 outs b) he has pair and I am flipping ( thank god ) c) I won 7,5 dollars. But even when he has a set he gave me good outs to call. Then there was a turn and if he really had a set then I am drawing dead but as I said I think that he might have a set on the flop it does not automatically mean I am 100% sure he has it and I am folding even against 1 dollar bet. By my calling there I was saying something like: I have good odds to draw but there is certain x% that I have no outs so in x% of cases I am giving 9 dollars away and in some situations I am drawing 13 outs which might justify my call. Then there was the river which made me to believe he as no set but probably overpair on the flop and turn. According to his wtsd value I was wondering if it is possible to try to steal the pot.

Hello,

I don't see any reason why not to raise the flop. Just raise it up against such a donk-bet and reevaluate further streets or see his further actions. I might even go broke here against that guy on flop.

Best regards,
Rensu

I am raising the flop, not only to get it ion but also to take the free river if he just calls the raise and for meta game reasons. As played it depends how you interpret his riverbet - we could raise here to make him fold one pair type hands. If he is good he will not fold, if he is some average player we should have fold equity.

Best regards,
TribunCaesar