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PLO25 KQJTds 3bet pot making exploitative fold with combo draw?

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Villain was on tight side and I doubt he really has anything else beside AAxx in 4bet range in this spot. Now versus pot size cbet on flop I would snap stack off but when I saw this sizing my first thought was "this has to be AAxx with nfd". Now if that is the case we still have 8 outs. So calling flop is fine even then but turn would actually be fold.

Would someone actually fold turn and put that much trust to bet sizing in this spot?

Game #1584298417: Table €25 PL - 0.10/0.25 - Pot Limit Omaha - 16:20:22 2021/11/12
Seated players
Seat 1: _-_-____ (€40.65)
Seat 2: Polias (€29.74)
Seat 3: 360NoScoping (€7.53)
Seat 4: Anti_a_Muck (€13.59)
Seat 5: lukilukiiii (€34.46)
Seat 6: Mihai812 (€25.66)
Blinds and button
Anti_a_Muck has the button
lukilukiiii posts small blind €0.10
Mihai812 posts big blind €0.25
Hole cards
Dealt to Polias T♠:Q♦:K♠:J♦:
Preflop
_-_-____ raises €0.85 to €0.85
Polias raises €2.90 to €2.90
360NoScoping folds
Anti_a_Muck folds
lukilukiiii folds
Mihai812 folds
_-_-____ raises €8.20 to €9.05
Polias calls €6.15
Flop A♣:Q♠:2♠:
_-_-____ bets €4.61
Polias calls €4.61
Turn 4♥:
_-_-____ bets €26.99, and is all-in
Polias calls €16.08, and is all-in

Spoiler

Showdown
River 3♦:
_-_-____ shows 5♦:7♠:A♠:A♦:, A Straight
Polias shows T♠:Q♦:K♠:J♦:, A Pair of Queens


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efkay
Joined: 25.03.2005

the ability to trust your reads and adjust your plays might be the difference between good and exceptual talented players. unfortunately you cant at least note it down (on everest still!?) and exploit next time.

So without evidence, I would hate myself because I would feel like entering the path of those gamblers who say out loud: ‚100% sure villain has xy in this spot‘

But you are right I also can not imagine what else villain is cbetting small 1/3 besides nuts with nutdraw. so I dont have a good answer for you <3


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Padelbro
Joined: 21.01.2010

I think villian's bet sizing is okay without nut spades. Flop is very good for his 4b range anyway and SPR is kind of awkward. He'll be playing two streets and as villain I would prefer you calling lighter.


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