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JTs on CO vs HJ, SRP, making the nuts on turn, facing CRAI w/ paired river

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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

The villain is 16/14/ATS:80/3B:17, 144 hands

It's a pretty tight stats, imo. A possible uber nit.

JTs on CO vs HJ is 8% call, 58.5% fold, 33.5% 3 bet.

It's actually better to fold preflop really in aggressive games, but it's a bit of leak in my game. And if you wanna play it then commit to a 3bet preflop.

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109.82 BB
SB: 107.68 BB
BB: 101 BB
UTG: 167.7 BB
MP: 114.24 BB
Hero (CO): 101.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♦ J♦

fold, MP raises to 2.1 BB, Hero calls 2.1 BB, fold, SB calls 1.6 BB, fold

Flop: (7.3 BB, 3 players) Q♠ 4♥ K♦
SB checks, MP bets 2.42 BB, Hero calls 2.42 BB, fold

Turn: (12.14 BB, 2 players) A♥
MP checks, Hero bets 9.48 BB, MP calls 9.48 BB

River: (31.1 BB, 2 players) 4♣
MP checks, Hero bets 16.18 BB, MP raises to 100.24 BB and is all-in, Hero ? ?

I think his check/call on turn is telling because I bet big.

I almost think that I should make a massive overbet on turn and then just check back on paired board river.

The thing is I felt spooked seeing the board pair on river.

Thoughts?


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13 replies
EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

I think its 3bet or fold preflop especially as he is more likely tighter regular. As for postflop - I dont have calling range from CO without big fish on blinds so I'm not sure, but your range on flop is very narrow so I think overbet is okey. As for river I was thinking about increased a bit sizing, but its probably ok to be half and target all his Axs playing bet flop -> x/c turn. When he shoves its meh but you have to call as you are on absolute top of your range and If your opponent is competent then he realize that you almost never have there full house.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

If villain folds a lot on 3bets I would do it, but otherwise I would fold against a tight villain.

Post-flop seems alright. Tough river spot, but I can't fold it. I expect villain would Cbet turn with a set most of the time for value and protection.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Fold preflop most of the time with such a dominated hand. 3bet from time to time. Rarely. I will avoid this player unless i have decent hand

Bigger bet on the river. Against a nitty player i will fold river. What value hands that you beat will he shove? Is he aggressive enough to push KQ or AQ here? I expect this hands to call down most of time. You are with nothing but a bluff catcher in this spot. What bluffs does he have? 99, TT, JJ? Witch you block. Will he cbet them on the flop against two players? I doubt it.

Btw turn will be very nasty card for every set. So it makes a lot of sense to slow down and keep your entire range in the hand. We cant exclude sets out his range.


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
Fold preflop most of the time with such a dominated hand. 3bet from time to time. Rarely. I will avoid this player unless i have decent hand

Bigger bet on the river. Against a nitty player i will fold river. What value hands that you beat will he shove? Is he aggressive enough to push KQ or AQ here? I expect this hands to call down most of time. You are with nothing but a bluff catcher in this spot. What bluffs does he have? 99, TT, JJ? Witch you block. Will he cbet them on the flop against two players? I doubt it

No bluff.

His value range: 44, A4s, AA, KK, QQ

Although, solver prefers 100% call in this spot, this is where you have to make your own decision.


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A4 is questionable. I doubt he open raise this hand and cbet flop with 3rd pair against 2 players. We have to assume he has something, at least.

But yeah. His value range crush you. I expect here only full houses and quads. There is not enough weaker value hands or bluffs to justifie a call.

solver prefers 100%

I see that these days people tend to put
too much trust in these programs. They can be useful indeed but they are blind for so many things. One of these things are emotions, psychology of the game, ego, nationality and so on.

My thought here is that it's not a good idea to rely on some program to tell you what to do

So as you say, you have to make your own decision

If you dont mind post the result


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
A4 is questionable. I doubt he open raise this hand and cbet flop with 3rd pair against 2 players. We have to assume he has something, at least.

But yeah. His value range crush you. I expect here only full houses and quads. There is not enough weaker value hands or bluffs to justifie a call.

solver prefers 100%

I see that these days people tend to put
too much trust in these programs. They can be useful indeed but they are blind for so many things. One of these things are emotions, psychology of the game, ego, nationality and so on.

My thought here is that it's not a good idea to rely on some program to tell you what to do

So as you say, you have to make your own decision

If you dont mind post the result

Not yet. I wanna see some more unbiased comments.


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pokerplayernumber1
Joined: 05.06.2010

Villain's repping it, I'm folding


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
What bluffs does he have? 99, TT, JJ? Witch you block. Will he cbet them on the flop against two players? I doubt it.

KQ,KJ,KT,K9, maybe he mixes some QJ/QT. Problem with folding this hand is that our hero is capped on river and thus its not that hard to find guts to bluff from opponent side because 'hey, I have all nutted hands in this world and you probably dont have even A4'.


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uSeeThat
Joined: 21.06.2022

The villain's bet sizing pre and on the flop seems sus.

Any read on that from the game?


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Dr1fter808
Joined: 11.10.2017

Thank you all.

Please do not click on the spoiler below:

Spoiler

GG Poker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109.82 BB
SB: 107.68 BB
BB: 101 BB
UTG: 167.7 BB
MP: 114.24 BB
Hero (CO): 101.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♦ J♦

fold, MP raises to 2.1 BB, Hero calls 2.1 BB, fold, SB calls 1.6 BB, fold

Flop: (7.3 BB, 3 players) Q♠ 4♥ K♦
SB checks, MP bets 2.42 BB, Hero calls 2.42 BB, fold

Turn: (12.14 BB, 2 players) A♥
MP checks, Hero bets 9.48 BB, MP calls 9.48 BB

River: (31.1 BB, 2 players) 4♣
MP checks, Hero bets 16.18 BB, MP raises to 100.24 BB and is all-in, fold

MP wins 58.96 BB

Other than 3 combos of JTs which ties, some bluff combos, overplayed hands like 43ss, 43dd, 54ss, 54dd, AK, AQ, I don't beat any of his value range and he has all boats in his range, so I fold, if he bluffed me then that's just too good and he deserves to win.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
Fold preflop most of the time with such a dominated hand. 3bet from time to time. Rarely. I will avoid this player unless i have decent hand

Bigger bet on the river. Against a nitty player i will fold river. What value hands that you beat will he shove? Is he aggressive enough to push KQ or AQ here? I expect this hands to call down most of time. You are with nothing but a bluff catcher in this spot. What bluffs does he have? 99, TT, JJ? Witch you block. Will he cbet them on the flop against two players? I doubt it.

Btw turn will be very nasty card for every set. So it makes a lot of sense to slow down and keep your entire range in the hand. We cant exclude sets out his range.

If I had a set I'm not to scared to be beat on the turn. Only JT gets there and more draws comes. Hero shouldn't have better sets in his range. QQ+ would be a 3bet most of the time pre-flop. Hero is in the top of his range. If you fold a straight you basicly fold anything on the river I think.


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Vampiir142
Joined: 01.10.2017

Preflop - 3B or fold. Flop - is loose call, but OK.
Turn - OK
River - check, after his check - he call turn bet, so he must have some value.


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ZakYoun270
Joined: 10.12.2015

gotta lay it down now. overall looks good.


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