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Flush vs paired board

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yangmartins
Joined: 28.11.2009

PokerStars - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 97 BB - 1k 32/22/2
Hero (BTN): 146 BB
SB: 297.5 BB
BB: 159.5 BB - 1k 73/17/3
UTG: 64 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ A♥

fold, CO raises to 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, SB calls 7.5 BB, BB calls 7 BB, CO calls 4.5 BB

CO is a LAG regular that has taken more than his share of my bankroll. If I play him on my left, I leave the table. He always gett 2 pairs against my TPTK, Full against my str8s or flushes. SO, to enter this pot, I raise him. Pretty standard.
SB is unklnown. Only 60 hands.
BB is an any 2 caller, as can be seen from stats.

Flop: (32 BB, 4 players) J♦ 7♥ K♥
SB checks, BB bets 16.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 16.5 BB, SB calls 16.5 BB

One of the best flops I can see with taht hand if I don't hit it directly.
Flush draw and GS, getting 17/48 IP, I won't fold easily.

Turn: (81.5 BB, 3 players) 3♥
SB checks, BB bets 25 BB, Hero raises to 61 BB, fold, BB calls 36 BB

That's what I hoped for whn I called flop.
Against BB stats, my only question is on the bet size. Looking back, I should've shoved directly, even though it0d be an overbet: 120/105 (I like to round numbers).

River: (203.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
BB bets 74 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 60.5 BB and is all-in

And here comes the paired board:f_zZz:
I know villain knows what I have. I am not sure if he knows I have the Ah flush, but he surely knows I have a flush, so...
I win from other flushes
I win from any 2 pairs and top pair (don't forget it's NL2)
I loose for Fulls. But, the only Fulls on range would be KJ, K7s(?), K3s(?), 77, 33(?), given the pre-flop action.

How wrong was my turn bet?
Do you see any space for a fold here, specially considering pot to stakes ratio?

Spoiler

BB shows J♣ K♦ (Full House, Kings full of Jacks)
(Pre 35%, Flop 59%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows Q♥ A♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 65%, Flop 41%, Turn 91%)
BB wins 308.5 BB


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8 replies
allenciox
Joined: 24.10.2022

Look at it this way. You are pot-committed after turn card. So I do think a raise to 61 BB is too small here (he needs to call 36 BB into a 167 BB pot). you could make it all in there or just raise it bigger, like to at least 90 BB, or even better, all-in. But you never fold on river here, as you are pot-committed. At these levels he could be betting a worse flush thinking it was good.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Turn I would shove for value. You could also slow play and re-evaluate the river and get it in on a non paired river card.

Cheers
SDK1987


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yangmartins
Joined: 28.11.2009

Ok. I am not trying to make an argument here, but I ran some math on this and:

Turn, considering my raise and that I won't fold river his call has 36/228 odds- 15.79% is his price to pay.
With his hand, he has 9% odds to win.
Against his hand + sets he has 14.55% odds to win.
So, being conservative and considering only his actual hand and sets, his call is -EV, meaning I want his call, even in this small size, more than I want his possible fold if shove. If we add flushes in his range the odds would be even better for me.

River, I am having 22% price for the pot.
Ofc if we only consider FH, on his range, it is a fold, but if we consider any flush in his range, my odds are 37% at least, not considering any K in his range that has not FH.
The main problem considering his possible flush, is that I am blocking the 2nd best with my Qh. For me that's what makes this river decision harder, as I don't know if I should consider flushes in his range.
If I had AhTh, the above numbers would be more accurate (on him doing this with a flush) than with my actual hand.

Does my line make sense?


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Castle93
Joined: 06.06.2011

I’d shove the turn for value, it looks more bluffy. As played, you have to call the river. You don’t have to be good very often and there’s no way he only does that with a full house.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

If villain has a weaker flush and sets he/she will call a shove on the turn for sure and a raise like this looks really strong.


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EnriqueBunbury
Joined: 20.05.2010

Hello,
The 3bet should be done at 11bb-12bb to not leave good oods, especially to blind players who, when going deep, have an easy call.
Also having a 73/13 in BB you could just call pf; and you would play a pot Mw being IP.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

If the BB likes to play a lot of pots it's not to bad to let him/her pay a lot to see a flop with a decent 3bet and indeed a 3bet of around 3x in position was most likely better.


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FriskyArt
Joined: 27.10.2009

This happens all the time at NL2 it's part of the game. As said before you shouldn't hesitate to shove on turn. Being a little more aggressive overall in the hand would arguable be better.


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