Another live MTT hand I would like to share.
We are at the late stage of the tournament, 20 people left and 9 get paid.
At my table there are 7 players and I am at the BB for 5k/10k, BB ante 10k.
After posting I have 195k and look at 7♥:7♣:.
Action folds to BTN, a splashy player, likes to limp and raise preflop, showing marginal hands.
Although some levels ago he had raised at some point from MP and I shoved 13BB from BTN with AKo, he called with JJ and I hit a K.
So Villain raises from BTN to 20k, SB folds and I shove. I was pretty sure that it was the correct play EV wise, and after inserting that situation in ICMIZER I saw that it is a clear shove. The software says Villain should be raising with 41% of his hands and we shoving our 37%, and 77s is way in there, a +0.52%Push.
Even if BTN raised 25% of hands, 77s would still be a +0.33%Push.
He calls with K♣:K♠:, we are crippled to 1.5 BB and eliminated in the next hand.
Instead of shoving, is there merit to just calling the raise?
I mean not many flops would look nice for me, I am mostly set mining here. In this case the flop came J♥:9♥:8♣: turn: 6♥: river: 3♠:
Maybe on this flop I wouldn't have lost too much, since it could be scary for him too.
Almost got there on the river