AKQ9rb at UTG

Open fold, fold to a 3bet.

Yeah it's best to open fold this. I think theory wise it's marginal open but in real life we get way way more calls than assumed. This hand play bad in multiway even with high cards.

Even versus wide 3bet range calling with rainbow hands is not really advisable in general. Outside of some double pairs or perhaps perfectly connected rundowns like JT98r. Or AA with deeper stacks.

As played postflop is played perfectly.

This 35/25 guy is pain in my a*

He 3bets all ds hands and calls always 4bets.

Your 3bet range consists primarily of AAxx, premium high pairs and double-suited connected stuff. And you also call most of your 3bet range against a 4bet (unless you have AAxx which is a 5bet ofc). So beside being too loose, he might be not doing that much wrong theoretically.

But if this is true, your hand very simplified is a call but because of having no equity edge (and being dominated by his AAxx and AKKx) you cannot do a reshove.

So he still has those hands otf and his cbet contains a lots of hands (especially with a small sizing) so we are not folding this for sure with the likely best hand obv. As our K♦:Q♣: gutshot blocks his drawing improvement possibilities, we also do not worry too much about playability, which means we can call. The turn luckily brings us the (somewhat vulnerable) nuts as he will be committed with a 2barrel we should reshove. If he checks we gonna bet mostly, pretty simple. In the end the turn-card actually does not matter, our top-pair top-kicker + 2pair/gutshot outs is generally strong, the question is primarily, if we´d reshove otf or call a 2barrel to reshove turns.

PS: Variance goes up against maniacs and lags so you have to be willing to lose some stacks here in order to increase your winrate. Ofc you can wait for AAxx, AKKx, KKxxds and AQQxds to reshove pre but it´s better to have a solid bankroll and play max-EV. ANNNrb still has a lot of high-card rank value in low SPR situations.

Problem in above EV is that it doesnt include those big pockets and ss high card rundowns. Still preflop EV will stay fairly high if he really 3bets ds stuff that wide. I would still fold this to 3bet as you will have less chances to realize that equity with rainbow hand. E.g. less flops to continue. Another issue is BB cold call range which should be on tight side. No info on that though so could be on wide side I suppose.

In general if you assume good amount of 3bets you should tighten your open raise range somewhat so you can take that heat in better way. Especially if likely 3bettor is in position.

Yes I made it a rough calc, my guess was that adding those would shift equity around 55:45 for villain. Seems to been pretty accurate. The smooth flop equity distribution speaks against the lack of equity realization against an overly loose range.

You could make an argument for raise-folding because of being oop so it´s indeed harder to realize without a plan and opponent profile, against very aggressive dynamics, you might still either go with it or just consider open-folding preflop if you really don´t want to play this hand in a 3bp oop. Our raise-calling frequency (risk of getting 3bet) heavily influences the profitability of openraising the rainbow stuff at the first place.

EV(postflop) = Call%* (Total Pot size * avg. Equity - Flop-shove)

According to the graph we can gii on 72% of flops because our equity will be 34% or higher.

To figure out avg. Equity we break the integral into segments of frequencies with similar equities. It´s recommended to use a minimum of 3, so I chose
0-20%, 20-45% and 45%-72%.

Avg. Eq. = 20/72*(100+80)/2+25/72*(80+62)/2+27/72*(62+34)/2 = 25+24,65+18 = 67,65%

If we fill in in the formula above:

EV(postflop) = 72%* (201,5bb * 67,65% - 90bb) = ~33,35 bb/100
The call preflop will cost us 6.5bb (13c) the overall EV in a scenario where villain spews flop all the time is 33,35 - 6.5 = 27 bb.

Ofc it´s assuming villain will stack-off 100% but that´s probably not exactly the case. However the 2barrel stack-off with a hand like Q♦:J♣:8♦:6♣: confirms the TOs´ description of villains´ profile being overly loose and aggressive and so we can also gii against a high turn cbet freq by calling otf as it was recommend by me. After elaborating ranges further to get a better picture of stack-off scenarios we can follow up to expand that calculation and write out the EV´s of different lines and textures with respective ranges and equities towards a more realistic allin-break-even equity calc. But roughly spoken comparing that 27 bb to an EV of 0 bb of raise-folding it is quite a distinctive EV-gap which hard to diminish by terrible play.