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PLO25 200bb Deep Bluff

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BunBun00
Joined: 13.09.2023

Bu opens, Bb 3bets A♦:A♣:2♣:4♥:
Flop J♥:K♣:8♦: checks through
Turn T♦:
Bb checks Bu bets 66%
Bb check raises 75%, Bu calls
River Q♦: SPR 1.3
Bb?

So villain is a loose opener & 3bet caller. My thoughts are my value check raises are nut str8 with backup such as FD. Ideally I want a bluff with backup maybe with a :Tx: to have some nut potential with gut shot?.
So A♦: is a key card here. When he bet turn I think his range mainly is: 2nd str8, some sort of KQ with :diamond: :diamond:. I remove most sets and :Kx: :Jx: from his range. He could have some :Tx: :Tx: :Qx:.. The river with a Q♦: is interesting. It removes K♦:Q♦:, Q♦:9♦: combos. I feel like this is a card that I got to continue on.
Was this a bad play?
Also should have probably raise 100% pot OTT.

Spoiler

OTR I potted he called with K♦:4♦:A♠:Q♠:, which suprisied me. As I would think he would 3bet my turn raise. Should he 3bet OTT?
I feel like potting OTR is the only correct sizing after x/r turn, but I'm curious about splitting between blocking betting 40 for nut str8 & betting100 for flushes.


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

He should have raised turn, as he had nuts with a freeroll.

I would just fold turn, when he bets on that board in 3bet pot, he has a hand always. When he just calls, it does look like a 2p/set + fd kind of a hand, and he is not folding his flush. I wouldn't be surprised if opponent calls there with rivered nut straight even.


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BunBun00
Joined: 13.09.2023

I removed some 2p/sets as they would bet the flop. Ignoring player pool tendencies, do you think this was a good hand to bluff?


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I don't have 200bb sim atm, but 100bb deep solver seems to c-raise turn with some AA42 combos with Ac. But only a portion, half of AcA42 hands fold, about 40% calls and only 10% raises. On that river solver definitely bets as it play Ac blocker same way as nutflush.

So yeah, you can justify the line as low frequency solver line. But in reality, versus unknowns I wouldn't do it at PLO25 ever.


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