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Are results oriented thinking a good marker for poker actions?

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theoP
Joined: 13.06.2023

Hello, I have a hand from a live 100$ MTT local casino, a bit far from the bubble play.

- 9-table, blinds 1k/3k with a 3k ante posted from big blind.
- I'm on the big blind with 50k after posting the 3k/3k.
- The loose HJ with ~150k stack opens to 9k. He must have something but his range so far is not very tight/premium.
- A kind of loose button is a big stack with ~200k, just flats the HJ bet. Don't consider a strong range, he just has the chips to see a flop.
- The SB with 50k also calls, he had just sit down I don't have any read, just on the older side gent. I would guess his range is not super strong but playable hands such as pocket pairs around 66-TT, Q9-AQ.
- I look up at JJ. I think to myself there is 33k in the pot, 66% of my remaining stack. Considering that most probably I should be ahead I jam. I also have fold equity, I don't mind if they just fold.

The HJ calls, the BTN folds and the SB after some consideration also calls his stack, saying something to the tune of let's gamble.
HJ shows ATo and SB shows KTs. An Ace peels on the flop and that was it.

So my obvious question here is should I have jammed or just called 2 more BB and see a flop and fold to future aggression due to that Ace on the flop? I think if it was bubble play I would have done the latter.
Looking back I could have tripled with a 50% chance running against ATo and KTs, and I was ahead of their range as I was pretty sure I was.

Any thoughts on this? Thanks a bunch.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

JJ is a easy stack off and it's to bad 1 of the villains connected with the board.
Especially the call of KTs is optimistic after you're shove and call of HJ.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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theoP
Joined: 13.06.2023

Yeah thanks I thought so. I had 50% equity and 25% each of the villains. Too bad I couldn't get the flip.


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Timmaywin
Joined: 23.02.2010

"the fish hooks" are always a bit of a tricky hand.

An all-in squeeze is fine after that many players calling and so much dead money in the pot. But an all-in is always high/ risk-high reward kind of scenario.
The more conservative route would be to setmine by just calling and check/folding when you see any overcards on the flop...


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by Timmaywin
"the fish hooks" are always a bit of a tricky hand.

An all-in squeeze is fine after that many players calling and so much dead money in the pot. But an all-in is always high/ risk-high reward kind of scenario.
The more conservative route would be to setmine by just calling and check/folding when you see any overcards on the flop...

With a 15bb stack with already 2bb of you're stack in the middle is JJ to strong I think to play for set value only. Off course you take a risk, but you are not deep enough to play the conservative route with in mind if everyone would fold you can increase you're stack a lot without showdown.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Shove all day long in any situation in normal MTT. Even if this was direct bubble its just way too good spot to not take with shove.


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