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How many players to consider for probability calculation in NLHE

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gpier
Joined: 02.05.2024

if I play on a table with 6 players, calculator websites like ask you for the number of opponents.

What should I fill in there, the number of opponents initially at the table (5), or the number of active players?

The simple answer could be to put the active players, but I would argue that it's not giving accurate estimations. As soon as the opponents are not either drunk or random bots, the probability is high that only the best hole cards remain out of the 5. Of course, some will be bluffing though, but shouldn't the conservative number of players still be 5?

Another problem is that if someone bets and 4 opponents fold, my probability will mechanically (and dramatically) increase, but in fact 5 opponents have seen and reacted to the play, not 2.

How, and when, should I adjust the number of opponents?


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Probability calculations is a wide topic. So it's impossible to answer without more specific definition. What calculations you are exactly doing?


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gpier
Joined: 02.05.2024

just equity


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Preflop equity? Versus what? Can you give an example?


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gpier
Joined: 02.05.2024

anytime, not only preflop. for example after the flop, someone bets and 4 players fold. how many opponents to consider, in order to calculate my equity?


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

One, as you have to give range to him. All other cards are unknown, mucked or not. In theory their folded cards are not totally random, but the effect on probabilities is very small in reality.


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gpier
Joined: 02.05.2024

See this is where I don't agree. This 1 player definitely doesn't have random cards like in a heads up, he saw the flop and bet, he most surely has better cards than the average of the 4 players who folded. how can this have no impact on probabilities?


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Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

You need to give him a range. Your equity is based on that estimation of his range. If you change your estiamation about his range, your equity changes.


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