CO Opens A♣:A♠:K♣:7♥:, BU calls, BB 3bets, CO 4bets, BU folds, BB calls.
K♥:9♥:6♥: SPR-1.5
BB checks, CO bets40, BB shoves
My thoughts were this is a GII spot. A 40% bet to set up a turn shove on no straight turns. I could also check but vs a 50% or bigger turn probe bet I will be in a weird spot. Vs a x-shove I could find a fold as this is under bluffed spot , but vs unknown I'm not comfortable folding while getting 27% odds.
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These are awkward spots as SPR is so small in general. Issue in these spots is that BB range for 3bet-calling is supposed to be very ds heavy. Meaning chance of him having flush is reasonably high especially when we dont block any high flush combos. On other hand our range is fairly AA heavy and that will include fair amount of non ds AA combos.
I checked in COvsSB 4bet spot in trainer on K95m and few interesting points to think about in overall strategy.
This is how SB would play in trainer:
So leading 1/5 pot huge amount of time. Reason for that is kind of obvious when we check how CO 4bet range constructs:
So we can see that on flush department ranges are fairly competitive. CO will have lot more nut flushes but its sort of irrelevant as any flush is kind of nuts for SPR 1. Basically same applies into sets and two pairs where SB has huge advantage. E.g. SB is not supposed to x-f any two pair versus CO shove. Now big question is how often do you see SB leading in this spot? Well spot is obviously very rare as its 4bet pot and monotone flops are rare. But I think its way more common that SB checks range over leading even 1/3 of range. Which means that we should actually check probably quite a bit more in CO shoes.
Trainer is potting quite a bit with this AAKx that has less than 2P and one spade though:
But again in practice if SB checks his range on flop I feel like these kind of shoves might turn into checks. When SPR is 1.5 we probably dont want to pot that much if at all. Instead I would use like 1/5-1/4 pot or so which is enough to get folds from villain weak hands and deny equity from some straight draws. We could check having some showdown value and bit of chance to improve. Its usually not spot where opponent will start bluffing or value betting thin I would say so chance to check to showdown is decent. Otherwise if betting I would go smaller and fold to raise.
But yeah as said these spots are super rare.
Having K♣: (blocking top-pair drawing to 2pairs) and 7♥: (straightdraw + flush blocker) in particular I would pick this combo to check back and call or bet-call ott.
I don´t think I would fold Aces at very low SPR having those sidecards.
Originally posted by ghaleon
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Very sophisticated analysis. I like it! ♠_thumbsup:
CO will have lot more nut flushes but its sort of irrelevant as any flush is kind of nuts for SPR 1.
That´s a good declaration to make, remember: handstrengths are always in to be set into realtion not to the spr/position only but primarily to the actual ranges in play! This is something ABC-regulars seem to ignore.
But I think its way more common that SB checks range over leading even 1/3 of range.
Agree. This would match my observation of common tendencies as well.
WOW! Thanks for the detailed breakdown. Having a comparable amount of all flushes also applies to 3bet pots as well, if I am not mistaken, where the 3bettor and the caller have flushes an equal amount of time.