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Calling a shove in bubble play

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theoP
Joined: 13.06.2023

Hello, the hand below occurred on a live MTT, 17 players left, 13 get paid. Places 13-10 get the buy-in*1.5.
Blinds are 6k/12k with 12k ante.
I am not sure if I should fold or re-shove in this case with ICM pressure, no read on the opponent either.

UTG: §130,000 (11 bb)
UTG+1: §60,000 (5 bb)
MP: §110,000 (9 bb)
MP+1: §180,000 (15 bb)
CO: §140,000 (12 bb)
BU (Hero): §160,000 (13 bb)
SB: §240,000 (20 bb)
BB: §700,000 (58 bb)

Pre-Flop: (§18,000) Hero is BU with A♣ Q♣
2 players fold, MP raises to §110,000 (all-in), 2 players fold, Hero 3-bets to §160,000 (all-in), 2 players fold

Flop: (§238,000) 7♥ 6♦ 3♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (§238,000) 4♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (§238,000) Q♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: §238,000 (Rake: §0)

Showdown:
BU (Hero) mucks A♣ Q♣ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 61%, Flop: 48%, Turn: 52%, River: 0%)

MP mucks 8♥ 9♥ (a flush, Queen high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 39%, Flop: 52%, Turn: 48%, River: 100%)

MP wins §238,000


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I need really good reads villain is really tight to consider folding AQs.
Decent change you have a good shot to double almost up en get at least at the final table.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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theoP
Joined: 13.06.2023

Yes, that's what I also thought. I'd probably wouldn't be posting the hand if it had gone my way thus to results-oriented bias.
Cheers


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Indeed and against villains actual hand you are in front, but only around 60%.


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